# Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner: BJP

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/assam-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $49K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 16¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-marco-rubio-polymarket-0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 |
| JD Vance | 17¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance-polymarket-0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422 |
| Gavin Newsom | 16¢ | +1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57 |
| Kamala Harris | 5¢ | +1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-kamala-harris-polymarket-0xb3298af85e00aafad937c119444a5f2800a55343b7482eb75581f6e454432501 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-tucker-carlson-polymarket-0xd94b47bdeba16ae948bfb147bda059f3543d6fca73291644dfff5268bba7a797 |
| Democrat | 64¢ | −2pp | $503 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-democrat-polymarket-0x66bbf6d55e0296278858b3147689f3df9259374f158f9f028b608baa322a639c |
| Republican | 37¢ | ±0 | $94 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 43 |
| 2026-06-05 | 29 |
| 2026-06-12 | 16 |
| 2026-06-18 | 37 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects market expectations that India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win the most seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election. The current estimate suggests traders view the BJP as a competitive but uncertain contender in the state. Assam's political dynamics involve multiple regional and national factors. The BJP's performance would likely depend on factors including voter turnout patterns, coalition dynamics with regional parties, and sentiment shifts on economic or governance issues in the state. The primary resolution point for this market would be the official election results once Assam holds its next assembly election. Until voting occurs and results are certified, this probability remains subject to revision based on polling data, political developments, or changes in voter sentiment reported through media coverage of the state's political situation.

### Key factors

- Historical voting patterns in Assam show competitive multi-party contests with regional parties consistently performing strongly alongside national parties
- Current composition of the Assam Legislative Assembly and recent electoral performance of BJP in the state compared to opposition parties
- Timing of the next scheduled Assam assembly election and whether pre-election polling data becomes available to traders
- Coalition arrangements and alliance strategies involving BJP and regional partners, which significantly impact seat distribution outcomes
- Economic conditions and governance perception in Assam during the period leading up to the election

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/assam-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=assam-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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