# Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino - More Markets: O/U 1.5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino-more
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:51.749Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 34% / Polymarket 23% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing | 3¢ | +5pp | $383 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-red-bull-racing-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-red |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +24pp | $347 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-dplus-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-dk |
| Nongshim Red Force | 25¢ | +8pp | $340 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-ns |
| Nongshim Red Force | 12¢ | — | $157 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060400nsgen-ns |
| Gen.G | 85¢ | — | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-geng-win-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-geng-leagu-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060400nsgen-gen |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 47¢ | +3pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-2 |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +14pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-dk |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 11¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-45-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-15-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-1 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 35¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-ns |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chapecoense-at-mirassol-totals-over-35-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10mircha-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chapecoense-at-mirassol-totals-over-45-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10mircha-4 |
| Over 2.5 maps | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-nongshim-red-fo-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may060400nsgen-3 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-1-ns |
| Over 2.5 maps | 40¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-nongshim-red-fo-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may040700nsdk-3 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 11¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 35¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-2-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-2-ns |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-map-2-in-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-2-dk |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +36pp 32→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Red Force +29pp 4→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +26pp 17→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Dplus KIA +24pp 31→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Red Force +16pp 4→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 31% probability that the Chapecoense vs. Bragantino match ends with 2 or more total goals scored. The aggregated estimate combines 20 contracts across two venues with a modest 5-percentage-point spread favoring Polymarket. Bragantino has been the stronger team this season, which typically correlates with higher-scoring matches, while Chapecoense's defensive record and recent form would push the probability lower. The match itself—scheduled for a specific date in the coming weeks—will definitively resolve this contract when the final whistle sounds and official goal totals are recorded. Current liquidity remains relatively limited across venues, suggesting limited recent trading activity as resolution approaches.

### Key factors

- Bragantino's average goals per match this season versus Chapecoense's defensive record in head-to-head history
- Weather conditions, team injuries, and tactical lineup decisions announced in the 24 hours before kickoff
- Whether either team is playing for specific standings implications (promotion push, relegation battle, or already-determined position)
- Kalshi and Polymarket's historical accuracy on Brazilian football under/over markets and whether the 5pp gap reflects genuine disagreement or data lag
- The scheduled match date and any postponements or fixture congestion that could affect team rotation or fatigue levels

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino-more
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino-more

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