# Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:58.283Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 36% / Polymarket 23% — 13pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing | 27¢ | +5pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-red-bull-racing-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-red |
| Dplus KIA | 68¢ | +24pp | $347 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-dplus-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-dk |
| Nongshim Red Force | 25¢ | +8pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040700nsdk-ns |
| Gen.G | 85¢ | — | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-geng-win-the-nongshim-red-force-vs-geng-leagu-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060400nsgen-gen |
| Nongshim Red Force | 12¢ | — | $77 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060400nsgen-ns |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 47¢ | +3pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-2 |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +14pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-dk |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 11¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-45-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/bragantino-at-chapecoense-totals-over-15-goals-sco-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may03charbb-1 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 36¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-1-ns |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chapecoense-at-mirassol-totals-over-35-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10mircha-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chapecoense-at-mirassol-totals-over-45-goals-score-kalshi-kxbrasileirototal-26may10mircha-4 |
| Over 2.5 maps | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-nongshim-red-fo-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may060400nsgen-3 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-1-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may060400nsgen-1-ns |
| Over 2.5 maps | 37¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-nongshim-red-fo-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may040700nsdk-3 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 11¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| Nongshim Red Force | 35¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nongshim-red-force-win-map-2-in-the-nongshim-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-2-ns |
| Dplus KIA | 58¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dplus-kia-win-map-2-in-the-nongshim-red-force-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may040700nsdk-2-dk |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +36pp 32→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Red Force +29pp 4→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +26pp 17→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Dplus KIA +24pp 31→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Nongshim Red Force +16pp 4→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 31% chance that Chapecoense defeats Red Bull Bragantino in an upcoming match. The probability reflects moderate uncertainty, with a 5 percentage point gap between Polymarket (35%) and Kalshi (30%), suggesting some disagreement across trader bases. Bragantino is favored as the likely winner at current odds. The main drivers of this probability are each team's recent form, head-to-head history, and squad availability. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively—either Chapecoense wins outright or they don't. Pre-match factors like team news, injuries, or lineup changes could shift the probability in the days leading up to kickoff, while live performance during the match will determine the final outcome. The cross-venue gap suggests traders on Polymarket see slightly elevated value in a Chapecoense victory compared to Kalshi participants.

### Key factors

- Chapecoense's recent league form and current standing relative to Bragantino's position in the Brazilian football table
- Head-to-head record between the two clubs over the past 3-5 meetings, including goals scored and defensive records
- Availability of key players—injuries, suspensions, or absences for either squad in the days before the match
- Home or away status for this fixture and each team's record at their respective venues this season
- Polymarket traders pricing Chapecoense 5 percentage points higher than Kalshi traders, indicating potential disagreement on underlying team strength or recent momentum

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=associao-chapecoense-de-futebol-vs-red-bull-bragantino

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.