# Atlanta United FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atlanta-united-fc-vs-new-england-revolution-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:26.472Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 36% / Polymarket 22% — 14pp spread
- 24h volume: $32K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 78¢ | +2pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-mvra |
| New England Patriots | 5¢ | +33pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/nfl-champion-2027-new-england-patriots-polymarket-0x8133843fe31063a6cc17c4582c023a832ee64802c98fcc08d79521629831d3c4 |
| New England | 3¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-2027-pro-football-champio-kalshi-kxsb-27-ne |
| New England | 82¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-aj-browns-next-team-new-england-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26abrown-ne |
| DC United | 19¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-dc-united-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-dcu |
| New York City | 54¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-new-york-city-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-nyc |
| Tie | 25¢ | +2pp | $884 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-tie |
| Gavin Newsom | 24¢ | +1pp | $560 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-be-first-this-list-to-declare-fo-kalshi-kxdeclarepresfirstd-28nov07-gnew |
| Philadelphia | 36¢ | +17pp | $428 | kalshi | /markets/new-england-vs-philadelphia-winner-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09nephi-phi |
| New England | 10¢ | — | $428 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-ne |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 75¢ | +2pp | $418 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-15-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-1 |
| Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score | 52¢ | +1pp | $331 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-both-teams-to-score-bot-kalshi-kxmlsbtts-26may03nycdcu |
| United States | 48¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Josh McDaniels | 12¢ | ±0 | $245 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-jmcd |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United | 5¢ | ±0 | $229 | polymarket | /markets/epl-17th-place-relegation-survivor-newcastle-unite-polymarket-0xe6ce8f48837e9dc2ce4f40a246552e834dbce06729c4c283b253b713e2a2fe3e |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | −1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-25-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-2 |
| New York Y vs Atlanta | 5¢ | ±0 | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-vs-atlanta-be-the-matchup-in-the-p-kalshi-kxteamsinws-26-nyyatl |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 19¢ | −3pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-gavin-newsom-announce-a-run-for-president-of-kalshi-kxnewsomrun-28-27jan01 |
| New England | 37¢ | +2pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-div-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-ne |
| New England Revolution | 31¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-ne-polymarket-0x162c2887f5aacb82c1fdfd7bcb5a3d7767187fc40474ba8e95b15d7e9c39b850 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 32 |
| 2026-04-19 | 35 |
| 2026-04-26 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · New England Revolution +50pp 0→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · New England Patriots +33pp 6→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score +30pp 19→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Philadelphia +17pp 20→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Newcastle United −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atlanta-united-fc-vs-new-england-revolution-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atlanta-united-fc-vs-new-england-revolution-more-markets

## License

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