# Atlas FC vs. Tigres de la UANL

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atlas-fc-vs-tigres-de-la-uanl
Updated: 2026-05-03T23:20:54.431Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $109

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Tigres UANL | 43¢ | +9pp | $109 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-tigres-uanl-polymarket-0x36d90d231e379b1fb5356006a579832473112cf671959dbd1aa6f20c65c74a71 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Winner: Tigres UANL −15pp 30→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Tigres UANL +13pp 15→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Tigres UANL +9pp 28→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Winner: Tigres UANL −7pp 37→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Winner: Tigres UANL +5pp 30→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 14% probability reflects the market's assessment that Atlas FC will win an upcoming Liga MX match against Tigres de la UANL. The low probability suggests Tigres are favored, likely based on recent form, head-to-head record, or current league standing. The probability could move higher if Atlas has a strong recent run of results or if key Tigres players are unavailable; it could move lower if Tigres demonstrate dominance in training or Atlas suffer injuries to key performers. The match result itself will resolve this contract, making the actual kickoff the critical catalyst for settlement.

### Key factors

- Recent win-loss records of both teams in Liga MX over the last 5-10 matches
- Head-to-head historical performance between Atlas and Tigres in Liga MX
- Team roster availability, including any injuries to starting players or suspensions
- Current league standings and each team's position relative to playoff qualification
- Home/away status and venue history, if the match location favors one team

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atlas-fc-vs-tigres-de-la-uanl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atlas-fc-vs-tigres-de-la-uanl

## License

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