# ATP Tennis Matches

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atp-tennis
Updated: 2026-06-05T19:20:12.252Z
Category: sports · Topic: tennis
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $780K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semifinal match?: Jakub Mensik | 22¢ | ±0 | $395K | kalshi | /markets/will-jakub-mensik-win-the-mensik-vs-zverev-semifin-kalshi-kxatpmatch-26jun05menzve-men |
| Semifinal match?: Alexander Zverev | 77¢ | ±0 | $181K | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-mensik-vs-zverev-sem-kalshi-kxatpmatch-26jun05menzve-zve |
| Semifinal match?: Flavio Cobolli | 68¢ | +2pp | $110K | kalshi | /markets/will-flavio-cobolli-win-the-arnaldi-vs-cobolli-sem-kalshi-kxatpmatch-26jun05arncob-cob |
| Semifinal match?: Matteo Arnaldi | 31¢ | −1pp | $95K | kalshi | /markets/will-matteo-arnaldi-win-the-arnaldi-vs-cobolli-sem-kalshi-kxatpmatch-26jun05arncob-arn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 50 |
| 2026-06-03 | 49 |
| 2026-06-04 | 50 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a player other than Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner will win at least one ATP Grand Slam title in 2026. Currently priced at 57%, it suggests the market views these two as favorites to dominate the four major tournaments but still expects meaningful competition from the rest of the field. The level is driven by Alcaraz and Sinner's recent dominance—Alcaraz won multiple majors in 2024 and Sinner won the Australian Open in 2025—against historical precedent where Grand Slams are distributed more broadly. The probability will shift based on tournament outcomes beginning with the French Open in May 2026, the first major of the year. Performance by Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Jannik Sinner's form, injuries, and seeding will all influence which other players have realistic paths to a major title.

### Key factors

- Alcaraz and Sinner have won four of the last five Grand Slam tournaments combined (2024-2025), establishing them as the current favorites
- The French Open begins May 2026, the first major tournament that will test whether challengers can break through or whether one of the two favorites wins again
- Historical Grand Slam distribution shows that across 2015-2019, five different men won the four major tournaments each year, suggesting other winners remain possible
- Djokovic's age (38-39 in 2026) and recent injury history may affect his competitiveness versus mid-career alternatives like Medvedev, Tsitsipas, or emerging players
- Contract volume of $870 over 24 hours is relatively modest, indicating limited market conviction and potential for significant probability shifts based on new information

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atp-tennis
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atp-tennis
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/tennis

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.