# Will Lorenzo Musetti win the ATP Rome

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atp
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.884Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 72¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-the-atp-rome-jannik-sinner-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-sin |
| Tommy Paul | 4¢ | — | $270 | kalshi | /markets/will-tommy-paul-win-the-atp-rome-tommy-paul-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-pau |
| Alexander Zverev | 8¢ | +1pp | $245 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-zverev-win-the-atp-rome-alexander-z-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-zve |
| Rafael Jodar | 3¢ | +1pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-rafael-jodar-win-the-atp-rome-rafael-jodar-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-jod |
| Arthur Fils | 6¢ | −1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-fils-win-the-atp-rome-arthur-fils-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-fil |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lorenzo-musetti-win-the-atp-rome-lorenzo-muse-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-mus |
| Ben Shelton | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-shelton-win-the-atp-rome-ben-shelton-kalshi-kxatp-26rome-she |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 56 |
| 2026-05-07 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | 6 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Jannik Sinner +14pp 56→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Arthur Fils +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.