# Will Alex de Minaur qualify for Semifinals at the 2026 French Open Men Singles tennis tournament

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpadvance
Updated: 2026-06-06T13:20:12.581Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-24

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli | 68¢ | +10pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-flavio-cobolli-qualify-for-final-at-the-2026-kalshi-kxatpadvance-26fofin-cob |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 28¢ | −3pp | $933 | kalshi | /markets/will-matteo-arnaldi-qualify-for-final-at-the-2026-kalshi-kxatpadvance-26fofin-arn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 2 |
| 2026-06-01 | 18 |
| 2026-06-05 | 49 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Flavio Cobolli +22pp 39→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Matteo Arnaldi +18pp 11→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Flavio Cobolli +14pp 18→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Flavio Cobolli +10pp 61→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Flavio Cobolli −7pp 25→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 38% chance that Alex de Minaur reaches the semifinals of the 2026 French Open men's singles tournament. The market reflects de Minaur's ranking and recent clay-court form relative to competitors, with related contracts showing other top-ranked players like Felix Auger-Aliassime priced higher for the same milestone. De Minaur's path depends on draw positioning, injury status heading into the tournament, and performance in lead-up clay events through spring 2026. The tournament itself, scheduled for May-June 2026, will serve as the ultimate resolver of this outcome. Markets currently price his semifinal odds lower than Auger-Aliassime's (49¢), suggesting bookmakers view de Minaur as less favored in the overall draw despite both players typically seeding in similar ranges.

### Key factors

- De Minaur's historical performance on clay courts relative to his hard-court baseline strength and Grand Slam semifinal frequency
- Seeding and draw positioning at the 2026 French Open, which determines quarterfinal and semifinal matchups
- Injury or fitness concerns in the months preceding the tournament, particularly affecting his spring clay-court schedule
- Performance in ATP 1000 clay events and other lead-up tournaments from April-June 2026 as indicators of form
- Strength of the overall men's draw in 2026 and how many top-10 players populate de Minaur's potential path

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpadvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atpadvance

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