# Will Tomas Machac win the Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev match by a set score of 2-0

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 19 contracts — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpexactmatch
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:10.558Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $470

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils wins 2-1 | 8¢ | — | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-fils-win-the-andrea-pellegrino-vs-arth-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09pelfil-fil21 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2-1 | 8¢ | — | $69 | kalshi | /markets/will-thiago-agustin-tirante-win-the-thiago-agustin-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tirnor-tir21 |
| Tomas Machac wins 2-0 | 12¢ | ±0 | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-tomas-machac-win-the-tomas-machac-vs-daniil-m-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09macmed-mac20 |
| Mariano Navone wins 2-0 | 10¢ | — | $63 | kalshi | /markets/will-mariano-navone-win-the-felix-auger-aliassime-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09augnav-nav20 |
| Daniil Medvedev wins 2-1 | 12¢ | ±0 | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniil-medvedev-win-the-tomas-machac-vs-danii-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09macmed-med21 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime wins 2-1 | 13¢ | — | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-felix-auger-aliassime-win-the-felix-auger-ali-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09augnav-aug21 |
| Cameron Norrie wins 2-0 | 28¢ | — | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-norrie-win-the-thiago-agustin-tirante-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tirnor-nor20 |
| Daniil Medvedev wins 2-0 | 27¢ | +1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-daniil-medvedev-win-the-tomas-machac-vs-danii-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09macmed-med20 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 2-0 | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-thiago-agustin-tirante-win-the-thiago-agustin-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tirnor-tir20 |
| Cameron Norrie wins 2-1 | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-norrie-win-the-thiago-agustin-tirante-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tirnor-nor21 |
| Frances Tiafoe wins 2-0 | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-frances-tiafoe-win-the-frances-tiafoe-vs-igna-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tiabus-tia20 |
| Frances Tiafoe wins 2-1 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-frances-tiafoe-win-the-frances-tiafoe-vs-igna-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tiabus-tia21 |
| Ignacio Buse wins 2-1 | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ignacio-buse-win-the-frances-tiafoe-vs-ignaci-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tiabus-bus21 |
| Ignacio Buse wins 2-0 | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ignacio-buse-win-the-frances-tiafoe-vs-ignaci-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09tiabus-bus20 |
| Jannik Sinner wins 2-0 | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-the-jannik-sinner-vs-sebast-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09sinofn-sin20 |
| Arthur Fils wins 2-0 | 64¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-fils-win-the-andrea-pellegrino-vs-arth-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09pelfil-fil20 |
| Hamad Medjedovic wins 2-0 | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hamad-medjedovic-win-the-hamad-medjedovic-vs-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09medfon-med20 |
| Hamad Medjedovic wins 2-1 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hamad-medjedovic-win-the-hamad-medjedovic-vs-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09medfon-med21 |
| Joao Fonseca wins 2-1 | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joao-fonseca-win-the-hamad-medjedovic-vs-joao-kalshi-kxatpexactmatch-26may09medfon-fon21 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 17 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpexactmatch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atpexactmatch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.