# Will Brandon Nakashima win at least 5.5 more games than Roberto Bautista Agut

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 10 contracts — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpgspread
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:09.879Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Agustin Tirante -1.5 games | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-thiago-agustin-tirante-win-at-least-15-more-g-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09tirnor-tir2 |
| Frances Tiafoe -1.5 games | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-frances-tiafoe-win-at-least-15-more-games-tha-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09tiabus-tia2 |
| Jannik Sinner -9.5 games | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-at-least-95-more-games-than-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09sinofn-sin10 |
| Jannik Sinner -6.5 games | 37¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-at-least-65-more-games-than-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09sinofn-sin7 |
| Jannik Sinner -3.5 games | 73¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-at-least-35-more-games-than-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09sinofn-sin4 |
| Arthur Fils -8.5 games | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arthur-fils-win-at-least-85-more-games-than-a-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09pelfil-fil9 |
| Joao Fonseca -5.5 games | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joao-fonseca-win-at-least-55-more-games-than-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09medfon-fon6 |
| Joao Fonseca -2.5 games | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joao-fonseca-win-at-least-25-more-games-than-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09medfon-fon3 |
| Hamad Medjedovic -1.5 games | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hamad-medjedovic-win-at-least-15-more-games-t-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may09medfon-med2 |
| Andrey Rublev -3.5 games | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrey-rublev-win-at-least-35-more-games-than-kalshi-kxatpgspread-26may08rubkec-rub4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 2 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects whether Brandon Nakashima will win at least 5.5 more matches than Roberto Bautista Agut over a defined period. At 45%, markets assess this as slightly less likely than not, suggesting uncertainty about whether Nakashima's recent form and ranking advantage will translate to a substantial win differential. The probability is primarily driven by the players' current rankings, recent match records, and scheduled tournament appearances. Nakashima, generally ranked higher, would need to maintain or improve performance while Bautista Agut shows relative decline—a multi-tournament outcome rather than a single event. The resolution depends on the specific timeframe and which competitions both players enter, making prediction difficult without knowing exact contract terms.

### Key factors

- Current ATP rankings and recent 52-week win-loss records for both players
- Number and caliber of tournaments each player is scheduled to enter during the resolution period
- Head-to-head historical match record and surface preferences
- Injury status or fitness concerns affecting either player's tournament availability
- Contract resolution date and whether it covers specific events (e.g., Grand Slams only) or all matches in a calendar period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpgspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atpgspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.