# Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpgtotal
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.160Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-12

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K
- Resolved: Total Games: Over 24.5 games

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Games: Over 37.5 games | 54¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/joao-fonseca-vs-novak-djokovic-total-games-over-37-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29fondjo-38 |
| Total Games: Over 37.5 games | 50¢ | ±0 | $131 | kalshi | /markets/thiago-agustin-tirante-vs-pablo-carreno-busta-tota-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29tircar-38 |
| Total Games: Over 36.5 games | 52¢ | +1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/karen-khachanov-vs-jesper-de-jong-total-games-over-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29khadej-37 |
| Total Games: Over 38.5 games | 46¢ | +1pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/casper-ruud-vs-tommy-paul-total-games-over-385-gam-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29ruupau-39 |
| Total Games: Over 35.5 games | 50¢ | +5pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/nuno-borges-vs-andrey-rublev-total-games-over-355-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29borrub-36 |
| Total Games: Over 36.5 games | 47¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/alex-de-minaur-vs-jakub-mensik-total-games-over-36-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29demen-37 |
| Total Games: Over 30.5 games | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nuno-borges-vs-andrey-rublev-total-games-over-305-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29borrub-31 |
| Total Games: Over 40.5 games | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/nuno-borges-vs-andrey-rublev-total-games-over-405-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29borrub-41 |
| Total Games: Over 31.5 games | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/alex-de-minaur-vs-jakub-mensik-total-games-over-31-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29demen-32 |
| Total Games: Over 41.5 games | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/alex-de-minaur-vs-jakub-mensik-total-games-over-41-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29demen-42 |
| Total Games: Over 32.5 games | 22¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/joao-fonseca-vs-novak-djokovic-total-games-over-32-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29fondjo-33 |
| Total Games: Over 42.5 games | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/joao-fonseca-vs-novak-djokovic-total-games-over-42-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29fondjo-43 |
| Total Games: Over 26.5 games | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/quentin-halys-vs-alexander-zverev-total-games-over-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29halzve-27 |
| Total Games: Over 31.5 games | 50¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/quentin-halys-vs-alexander-zverev-total-games-over-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29halzve-32 |
| Total Games: Over 36.5 games | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/quentin-halys-vs-alexander-zverev-total-games-over-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29halzve-37 |
| Total Games: Over 31.5 games | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/karen-khachanov-vs-jesper-de-jong-total-games-over-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29khadej-32 |
| Total Games: Over 41.5 games | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/karen-khachanov-vs-jesper-de-jong-total-games-over-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29khadej-42 |
| Total Games: Over 31.5 games | 56¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/alex-michelsen-vs-rafael-jodar-total-games-over-31-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29micjod-32 |
| Total Games: Over 36.5 games | 44¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/alex-michelsen-vs-rafael-jodar-total-games-over-36-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29micjod-37 |
| Total Games: Over 41.5 games | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/alex-michelsen-vs-rafael-jodar-total-games-over-41-kalshi-kxatpgtotal-26may29micjod-42 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 31 |
| 2026-05-28 | 30 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Total Games: Over 31.5 games −11pp 40→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Total Games: Over 35.5 games +5pp 40→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Total Games: Over 32.5 games −4pp 26→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Total Games: Over 31.5 games +4pp 43→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Total Games: Over 36.5 games +3pp 39→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev match will extend beyond 14.5 games (roughly meaning more than two sets will be closely contested or go to tiebreaks). The 56% price suggests traders see meaningful probability for a competitive, extended matchup rather than a decisive result. Key drivers include both players' current form, head-to-head history, and the specific surface and tournament context where they meet. The probability would shift based on recent tournament results, injury reports, or fitness levels reported closer to the match date. Market liquidity is concentrated in the Over 14.5 games contract, while minimal trading volume in the extreme-length outcomes (Over 24.5) suggests low conviction about marathon sets.

### Key factors

- Sinner's recent performance trajectory and any injuries or fatigue from prior matches in the tournament
- Medvedev's serve consistency and baseline depth, which historically extend rallies against aggressive opponents
- Head-to-head records on the specific surface and conditions expected for this match
- Tournament round and schedule context—players' fatigue levels differ sharply between early rounds and finals
- Market volume concentration in Over 14.5 games vs. extreme outcomes suggests intermediate-length matches are priced more confidently than blowouts or epics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpgtotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atpgtotal

## License

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