# Will Jaume Munar win set 1 in the Jaume Munar vs Alexander Shevchenko match

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpsetwinner
Updated: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-21

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $433

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | 66¢ | — | $236 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-zverev-win-set-1-in-the-flavio-cobo-kalshi-kxatpsetwinner-26jun07cobzve-1-zve |
| Alexander Zverev | 65¢ | +23pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-zverev-win-set-2-in-the-flavio-cobo-kalshi-kxatpsetwinner-26jun07cobzve-2-zve |
| Flavio Cobolli | 31¢ | +1pp | $74 | kalshi | /markets/will-flavio-cobolli-win-set-1-in-the-flavio-coboll-kalshi-kxatpsetwinner-26jun07cobzve-1-cob |
| Flavio Cobolli | 27¢ | +10pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-flavio-cobolli-win-set-2-in-the-flavio-coboll-kalshi-kxatpsetwinner-26jun07cobzve-2-cob |
| Flavio Cobolli | 3¢ | +4pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-flavio-cobolli-win-set-3-in-the-flavio-coboll-kalshi-kxatpsetwinner-26jun07cobzve-3-cob |
| Alexander Zverev | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-zverev-win-set-3-in-the-flavio-cobo-kalshi-kxatpsetwinner-26jun07cobzve-3-zve |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 26 |
| 2026-06-06 | 26 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Alexander Zverev +23pp 40→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Flavio Cobolli +10pp 16→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Flavio Cobolli +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 16% probability that Jaume Munar will win the first set against Alexander Shevchenko in their upcoming match. The low probability suggests Shevchenko is favored, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or ranking differences between the two players. The main factors driving this assessment are relative player strength, surface conditions if known, and any recent performance data. The match result itself will resolve this contract when it occurs, making the specific match date the primary catalyst for clarity. Factors that could shift the probability include injuries, updated rankings, or new information about either player's conditioning or form leading up to the contest.

### Key factors

- Current ATP/professional rankings and recent tournament results for both Munar and Shevchenko
- Head-to-head historical record between the two players, if applicable
- Surface type of the tournament and each player's documented performance on that surface
- Recent form metrics such as win-loss records in the past 4-6 weeks and set-winning percentages
- Any reported injuries, illness, or conditioning concerns for either player prior to match day

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/atpsetwinner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=atpsetwinner

## License

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