# Will Tim Cook attend any part of Donald Trump’s first visit to China after Issuance

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 11 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/attendtrumpchina
Updated: 2026-05-11T19:50:39.691Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 89¢ | ±0 | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-elon-musk-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-fi-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-emus |
| Jensen Huang | 6¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-jensen-huang-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-jhua |
| Larry Fink | 92¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-larry-fink-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-f-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-lfin |
| Tim Cook | 89¢ | +12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tim-cook-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-fir-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-tcoo |
| Sam Altman | 10¢ | −7pp | $929 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-altman-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-f-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-salt |
| Jamie Dimon | 5¢ | −3pp | $364 | kalshi | /markets/will-jamie-dimon-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-jdim |
| Howard Lutnick | 18¢ | −2pp | $167 | kalshi | /markets/will-howard-lutnick-attend-any-part-of-donald-trum-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-hlut |
| Darren Woods | 19¢ | −9pp | $97 | kalshi | /markets/will-darren-woods-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-dwoo |
| Steve Schwarzman | 91¢ | +2pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-schwarzman-attend-any-part-of-donald-tr-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-ssch |
| Marco Rubio | 90¢ | +11pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-mrub |
| Dario Amodei | 3¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dario-amodei-attend-any-part-of-donald-trumps-kalshi-kxattendtrumpchina-27jan-damo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 56 |
| 2026-05-09 | 59 |
| 2026-05-10 | 53 |
| 2026-05-11 | 46 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Marco Rubio −18pp 92→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Elon Musk +15pp 18→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-10 · Sam Altman −13pp 33→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-11 · Tim Cook +12pp 67→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-10 · Marco Rubio +11pp 74→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Apple CEO Tim Cook will participate in at least some portion of Donald Trump's first China visit after the contract was issued. At 58%, the market sees it as slightly more likely than not that Cook will attend, though significant uncertainty remains. The probability is likely driven by Cook's history of diplomatic engagement with Chinese leadership, Apple's substantial operations and revenue dependence on China, and his established relationship with Trump administration officials. However, it's tempered by the unpredictability of diplomatic schedules and Cook's competing commitments as a public company CEO. The resolution will depend on Trump's actual China visit timing and whether Cook is formally invited or voluntarily attends any accompanying business delegation or official events. Key upcoming factors include announcements of the China visit date, any public statements from Apple or the administration about Cook's participation, and broader US-China trade or diplomatic developments.

### Key factors

- Apple generated approximately 20% of revenue from China in recent fiscal years, creating strong incentive for CEO attendance at high-level diplomatic visits
- Tim Cook has historically participated in major diplomatic and trade-related events involving China and maintained relationships with multiple administrations
- Trump's China visit date and specific attendee list remain unannounced, making the probability contingent on future scheduling decisions
- Cook's public schedule and competing Apple obligations (earnings calls, shareholder meetings, product announcements) may conflict with China visit timing
- Market is pricing Cook's attendance notably higher than other tech/business leaders like Elon Musk (23¢) but lower than government officials like Marco Rubio (89¢)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/attendtrumpchina
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=attendtrumpchina
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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