# Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season — Above $110.5M

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 5 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/auctionrecord
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.134Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $110.5M | 9¢ | — | $611 | kalshi | /markets/will-jean-michel-basquiat-break-his-auction-record-kalshi-kxauctionrecord-27-bas-110500000 |
| Above $117,180,000 | 11¢ | −5pp | $243 | kalshi | /markets/will-vincent-van-gogh-break-their-auction-record-t-kalshi-kxauctionrecord-27-vin-117180000 |
| Above $110,747,000 | 6¢ | +2pp | $228 | kalshi | /markets/will-claude-monet-break-their-auction-record-this-kalshi-kxauctionrecord-27-cla-110747000 |
| Above $179,365,000 | 9¢ | −6pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-pablo-picasso-break-his-auction-record-this-s-kalshi-kxauctionrecord-27-pic-179365000 |
| Above $195,040,000 | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-warhol-break-his-auction-record-this-sea-kalshi-kxauctionrecord-27-war-195040000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-26 | 7 |
| 2026-05-27 | 9 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Above $110,747,000 −14pp 18→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Above $179,365,000 −6pp 15→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above $117,180,000 −5pp 16→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 10% probability that a Jean-Michel Basquiat painting will sell for more than $110.5 million at auction within this season. The current record for a Basquiat work is $110.5 million, set in 2017. The low probability reflects the rarity of paintings reaching or exceeding this threshold, combined with limited availability of top-tier works entering the market in any given season. Comparable artists show similarly low probabilities for breaking their records, suggesting high thresholds are inherently difficult to exceed. Resolution depends on whether major auction houses schedule significant Basquiat works and whether collectors compete to push prices beyond the established record. The primary catalyst is the frequency and quality of Basquiat lots offered at major auctions through the end of the current season.

### Key factors

- Basquiat's record of $110.5M has stood since 2017, representing nine years without a breakthrough sale at this price level
- Only a handful of Basquiat works have ever sold above $50M, limiting the pool of paintings capable of setting records
- Market conditions, collector appetite, and competition between bidders fluctuate seasonally, directly affecting whether reserve prices are met and bids escalate
- The specific Basquiat works offered at Sotheby's and Christie's this season determine feasibility—catalogued pieces must be authenticated masterpieces with sufficient provenance
- Comparable artists (Monet at 3%, Picasso at 9%, Warhol at 11%) show record-breaking is uncommon even among the most valuable painters, establishing baseline rarity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/auctionrecord
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=auctionrecord

## License

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