# Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama

> CR Vasco da Gama leads at 41%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/audax-cs-italiano-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:49.174Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: CR Vasco da Gama at 41%
- Runner-up: Audax CS Italiano at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Vasco da Gama | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/audax-cs-italiano-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama-cr-vasco-da-polymarket-0x6110dd02d5b7dcce9e6a47ba8719d2aaeca6bdd3446ef851f31db58c37836355 |
| Audax CS Italiano | 30¢ | — | $5 | polymarket | /markets/audax-cs-italiano-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama-audax-cs-ita-polymarket-0x77b494da396965818bb6e74912d576046b901b120bc3907630b546967780b472 |
| Draw (Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/audax-cs-italiano-vs-cr-vasco-da-gama-draw-audax-c-polymarket-0x287c5771bcd442ad7d97ed64c360d1ddbd3a157749d57ec2d3b2318dbfa0ba78 |

## Analysis

This probability reflects the aggregated expectation that Audax CS Italiano will defeat CR Vasco da Gama in an upcoming match. The 30% baseline is supported primarily by Kalshi contracts showing modest confidence in Audax, though limited trading volume ($10 in 24h) across Polymarket suggests thin liquidity and potentially unstable pricing. The 5-percentage-point gap between venues (Polymarket at 34%, Kalshi at 29%) indicates some disagreement on Audax's chances. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome, which would eliminate all uncertainty immediately. Current pricing may reflect recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage, though the sparse contract activity suggests most traders are focused on the higher-profile Flamengo vs. Vasco da Gama matchups visible in the contract list rather than this fixture.

### Key factors

- Audax CS Italiano's recent league position and win-loss record in the current season compared to Vasco da Gama's
- Home-field advantage status: whether Audax plays at home or away, and historical performance in that configuration
- Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs in their most recent 5-10 competitive meetings
- Low 24-hour trading volume ($10) on the primary Audax vs. Vasco contract, indicating limited market conviction or information flow
- Injury or suspension status of key players on either roster in the days immediately before the scheduled match

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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