# Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recess

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/augrecesscab
Updated: 2026-08-09T13:20:51.630Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-08

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-cabinet-nominees-confirmed-by-t-kalshi-kxaugrecesscab-26aug08-e3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | 24 |
| 2026-08-01 | 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | 5 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · 3 +15pp 2→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · 3 −10pp 21→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · 3 −6pp 11→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · 3 +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that exactly two Cabinet nominees will be confirmed by the Senate between now and the August 2026 recess. Market pricing suggests this is the most probable outcome at 48%, with exactly three confirmations at 26% and fewer confirmations at 24% combined. The probability reflects expectations about Senate confirmation pace, nominee withdrawals, and legislative priorities during the summer session. Factors driving this estimate include the current backlog of pending nominees, Senate floor time allocated to confirmations, and historical confirmation velocity. The outcome will be determined definitively once the Senate enters its August recess, with resolution depending on official Senate records of confirmed Cabinet-level positions. Market uncertainty remains meaningful, indicated by meaningful probability distributed across all outcomes.

### Key factors

- Current Senate schedule and floor time allocation for Cabinet confirmations versus other legislative priorities between July and early August 2026
- Number of pending Cabinet nominees with scheduled hearings or floor votes and their likelihood of advancement without withdrawal or delay
- Historical confirmation velocity for Cabinet nominees during summer months when fewer legislative days typically occur before recesses
- Whether any major political events, scandals, or procedural delays significantly alter the confirmation timeline between issuance and August recess
- Definition clarity on what constitutes a 'Cabinet nominee' and whether provisional or partial confirmations affect the final count

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/augrecesscab
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=augrecesscab
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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