# Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:48.578Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0x361d0825fd5d45ed9f9fffca2764928f720727ea72d2576db6974c6d2de1fcba |
| O/U 3.5 | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-ou-3-polymarket-0x8a0a7cd897a95105009d3b62506a9ad322007a30437f184f30da7b1882f29c4e |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xfb53dd6e13e99ece1a90b3bc7f0934ba6bdf58aef1c18fd059cd33befde82bf6 |
| Mumbai City FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-mumb-polymarket-0x870a5070cb227431dd8fa05a817bcfe2a8b48c71e801586b5639d147d7b97744 |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x749d6005cbd935d0457b1ba46084f8fed6e75daea118208b0a6f978d36a9214e |
| Mumbai City FC (-1.5) | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-mumb-polymarket-0x859e14eb8d562e2f86de05a1bed5fea9676ee2c949cf0e1467b322ad4c55c478 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x0e25b551a118495f7e2c433fd68e6e53fcf38d6641d1723c648e6161691a6674 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x1addf084258d8d2d82ad864949be42d2dbce523d92a71c9fa42acfe27c07ac8d |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0xd6838381c0c35db5a2b4887d2f6dd520ea2cd8829c4e505a637419cb3f4e5708 |
| Yokohama FC (-2.5) | 34¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-yokoha-polymarket-0x63f37e77be6ee67b7a2136a946b8e213b3e172b4af30e83a2706e476c714c527 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-ou-4-polymarket-0x53fd8b923d5e1f12a9478a352cefc4d33c01ca82e35715c6cd4740834b1fa3a0 |
| Yokohama FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-yokoha-polymarket-0x2c1d8193e28b595f3903da1a31b9be397c53ac444485be771094d265d036eecf |
| East Bengal FC (-1.5) | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-east-polymarket-0x1ef468ee3081d30662507065ce715a91db79b15ca6d9b4751e4f518e347d3cd4 |
| Tochigi City FC (-1.5) | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-tochig-polymarket-0x00d353e73d92c211a37d3b0eb03737f155a2b0413c3532525a81dc65562d5196 |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x52ecc53ae751a4a04406a38d2eae3d0bb5c00a4010daf306acb60d6c2f391539 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x087e96b348af724088fc5c0c9620932971bbee21079bd0619bac94f9d8554031 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x22beacd714da8e36133ae7b4ce9a922882b6587e6747fb1648422ade6fe12bae |
| Tochigi City FC (-2.5) | 23¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-tochig-polymarket-0xd08f51a60bef0a7c506ef2c93e03fde75b5311864a8c2b5b9f66777f3cb11e15 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd165f0be07f5e0f8d9c9531860a4288aa0971cf6dcfa9f6f3666f8f7277681c8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x4d7c4d3d2a8333e19cc0f197aa44846a2b1667626e96254e8086a4f61c2e2b66 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score −8pp 59→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Mumbai City FC (-2.5) +7pp 14→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tochigi City FC (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yokohama FC (-2.5) +4pp 34→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yokohama FC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 37% probability that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming MLS match. The probability sits in the lower-to-moderate range, suggesting the market views St. Louis City SC as the more likely winner or favors a draw outcome. Austin FC's current form, head-to-head record against St. Louis City SC, home/away advantage considerations, and injury status of key players are the primary factors influencing this probability. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played. Market participants are pricing in historical performance data, seasonal standings, and available team news. The relatively even distribution of probability across multiple related contracts suggests modest confidence in any single outcome, typical for competitive MLS matchups. Volume data shows limited recent trading activity across these contracts, indicating either low current interest or a match scheduled further out.

### Key factors

- Austin FC's current MLS season record, win percentage, and points-per-game relative to St. Louis City SC's corresponding metrics
- Historical head-to-head record between the teams and performance in similar matchup contexts
- Home/away venue advantage and each team's performance split in their respective stadiums during the current season
- Confirmed injury status or suspension of starting players for either team, particularly offensive or defensive key performers
- Current league standings, goal differential, and recent form (last 5-10 matches) for both teams as of the match date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.