# Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:49.920Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-16

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 32% / Polymarket 37% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $280K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles D | 57¢ | +2pp | $186K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-winner-los-angeles-d-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031415ladstl-lad |
| St. Louis | 42¢ | ±0 | $78K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-winner-st-louis-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031415ladstl-stl |
| St. Louis | 6¢ | +2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-be-the-2026-nl-central-division-winn-kalshi-kxmlbnlcent-26-stl |
| Austin | 37¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/austin-vs-saint-louis-winner-austin-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03atxstl-atx |
| Yes | 53¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031415ladstl |
| Tie | 28¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/austin-vs-saint-louis-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03atxstl-tie |
| Saint Louis | 36¢ | ±0 | $701 | kalshi | /markets/austin-vs-saint-louis-winner-saint-louis-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03atxstl-stl |
| St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs | 27¢ | +1pp | $604 | kalshi | /markets/st-louis-wins-by-over-15-runs-st-louis-wins-by-ove-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031415ladstl-stl2 |
| Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming | 35¢ | ±0 | $544 | kalshi | /markets/will-julia-letlow-and-john-fleming-advance-in-the-kalshi-kxlasenmatchup-26may-jletjfle |
| St. Louis | 4¢ | −2pp | $511 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-basebal-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-stl |
| Zero Tenacity | 16¢ | +3pp | $420 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-z10 |
| Over 13.5 runs scored | 19¢ | +2pp | $310 | kalshi | /markets/los-angeles-d-vs-st-louis-total-runs-over-135-runs-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031415ladstl-14 |
| Julia Letlow vs. Bill Cassidy | 32¢ | +1pp | $197 | kalshi | /markets/will-julia-letlow-and-bill-cassidy-advance-in-the-kalshi-kxlasenmatchup-26may-jletbcas |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | +1pp | $194 | kalshi | /markets/saint-louis-at-austin-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03atxstl-2 |
| St. Louis | 50¢ | +12pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-vs-st-louis-winner-st-louis-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may041945milstl-stl |
| St. Louis Blues | 4¢ | +2pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-auston-matthewss-next-team-st-louis-b-kalshi-kxnextteamnhl-26amat-stl |
| St. Louis | 45¢ | — | $106 | kalshi | /markets/milwaukee-vs-st-louis-winner-st-louis-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may051945milstl-stl |
| 75+ wins | 51¢ | −1pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-win-at-least-75-games-this-season-75-kalshi-kxmlbwins-stl-26-t75 |
| Zero Tenacity | 23¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-map-2-in-the-zero-tenacity-kalshi-kxdota2map-26may031100z10ngx-2-z10 |
| St. Louis CITY SC | 37¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-st-polymarket-0x4cc999cd54ce7ea25914fa09c8628d0371a1c952845eadb98cd8ed28d06365be |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 14 |
| 2026-04-19 | 15 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · St. Louis CITY SC +40pp 10→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming +18pp 17→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming −14pp 31→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · St. Louis +12pp 37→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Zero Tenacity +10pp 12→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The substantial 28-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on the likelihood, with Kalshi pricing Austin's victory significantly higher at 62%. Polymarket's lower aggregate of 34% indicates broader skepticism about Austin's prospects, potentially driven by differences in how each market weights team form, home-field advantage, or injury status. The relatively low trading volume on most Austin-St. Louis contracts suggests limited market conviction overall. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, with the outcome determined by actual in-game performance rather than underlying team metrics.

### Key factors

- Kalshi prices Austin FC victory at 62% versus Polymarket's 34%, indicating a material difference in fundamental assumptions between venues
- Trading volume is thin across most Austin-St. Louis contracts ($65–$140 per day), suggesting limited participation may amplify price disparities
- The draw probability on Polymarket sits at 27%, which combined with St. Louis City SC's 16% under-1.5-goal spread implies markets expect a low-scoring match
- Home-field advantage, current league standing, head-to-head history, and injury reports would typically explain the direction of the probability
- The match outcome is binary and contractually determined, eliminating ambiguity in settlement once play concludes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=austin-fc-vs-st-louis-city-sc

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