# Australia vs. Türkiye

> Türkiye leads at 54%, runner-up 26% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/australia-vs-trkiye
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.231Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: Türkiye at 54%
- Runner-up: Draw (Australia vs. Türkiye) at 26%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 54¢ | ±0 | $39 | polymarket | /markets/australia-vs-trkiye-trkiye-polymarket-0x48880e3355f031da13b5ed1142d209396bdec61acf6c0945234ff6e5edab9ebf |
| Draw (Australia vs. Türkiye) | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/australia-vs-trkiye-draw-australia-vs-trkiye-polymarket-0x12c17c04d2e404bd85a8c65c04cd7e8799a6295c7f74414feec5e867fa40cc5a |
| Australia | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/australia-vs-trkiye-australia-polymarket-0xaaee502e7f2378521ba15c183e2762cecab013dd42f7600f7b35e99e0882f08c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Türkiye | Draw (Australia vs. Türkiye) | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 51 | 27 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 | 27 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 53 | 26 | 21 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 26 | 20 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market expectation that Australia will win in a matchup against Türkiye, with 36% odds implying roughly two-to-one odds in Türkiye's favor. The market is pricing in Türkiye as the stronger team based on recent form and rankings. The probability could shift significantly based on team composition changes, recent injury reports, or head-to-head historical performance. Resolution will depend on the actual match result when this fixture is played. Market liquidity is relatively thin on this contract, with only $28 in 24-hour volume, meaning large bets could move the probability noticeably. Related contracts show mixed confidence across the broader tournament or series context.

### Key factors

- Türkiye is priced at 54 cents (54% implied probability) versus Australia on the same matchup, indicating strong market lean toward Türkiye as favorites
- Low trading volume ($28 in 24 hours) suggests limited consensus and potential for probability swings with modest additional trading
- Related contracts show varying confidence—Paraguay priced at 27 cents against Türkiye but 34 cents when Australia faces Paraguay, indicating tournament-specific dynamics
- Match outcome depends entirely on team form, injuries, and composition at the time of play, currently unknown from the contract data
- No specific match date is indicated in the contracts, so resolution timing and whether teams will have played other matches first remains uncertain

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/australia-vs-trkiye
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=australia-vs-trkiye

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.