# Austria vs. Jordan

> Austria leads at 74%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/austria-vs-jordan
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.689Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Austria at 74%
- Runner-up: Draw (Austria vs. Jordan) at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 74¢ | +1pp | $42 | polymarket | /markets/austria-vs-jordan-austria-polymarket-0x15869f0d05e99ad5789f647685b2eedbbe4201f8910a2bdb70e5716bd3674e8f |
| Draw (Austria vs. Jordan) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/austria-vs-jordan-draw-austria-vs-jordan-polymarket-0x2d17b7b5c8701296c4348f016076a948f25cb83e23c8b863bfa1e22ed493ae53 |
| Jordan | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/austria-vs-jordan-jordan-polymarket-0x5256dfc89708ca138d1dc892c81991f2798694e077d86843707aeb2b615b1e15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Austria | Draw (Austria vs. Jordan) | Jordan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 17 | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 72 | 19 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 72 | 17 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 73 | 17 | 13 |
| 2026-05-09 | 74 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austria will defeat Jordan in an upcoming match. The current level sits at the midpoint between two major prediction markets, with Polymarket pricing Austria's victory slightly higher at 36% versus Kalshi's 32%, suggesting some disagreement about Austria's competitive advantage. Austria's higher historical ranking and European league experience typically favor outcomes like this, though Jordan has shown recent improvement in regional competitions. The primary driver moving this probability would be team roster changes, recent performance in qualifying rounds, or injury updates to key players before the match. Market resolution depends on the final match result, which would eliminate all uncertainty about the outcome.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contracts show significantly higher Austria odds (73¢) than Kalshi's tie probability (14¢), indicating venue-specific risk assessments or liquidity differences rather than fundamental disagreement
- Austria's implied win probability of 36% incorporates European competition experience and historical rankings, but contracts show relatively modest trading volume ($7-5 24h), suggesting limited confidence in either direction
- Related Jordan fixtures (vs. Algeria, vs. Argentina) trade at substantially lower prices, indicating market views Jordan as a weaker competitor overall but with context-dependent match dynamics
- The 4 percentage point gap between venues persists despite ongoing trading, suggesting structural differences in how each market weights team capabilities or player availability information
- Recent team form, injury reports, and pre-match odds movements from traditional sportsbooks would be primary real-time indicators of shifting market consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/austria-vs-jordan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=austria-vs-jordan

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.