# Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April — 0-10

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-april
Updated: 2026-06-14T11:20:53.385Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 86%
- Runner-up: Before Apr 1, 2027 at 84%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $417K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 86¢ | +3pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270701 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 84¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270401 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 75¢ | +3pp | $35K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270101 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 63¢ | +1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261001 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 57¢ | ±0 | $25K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260901 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 48¢ | ±0 | $167K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 17¢ | ±0 | $156K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260701 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 1, 2027 | Before Apr 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 85 | 84 | 76 |
| 2026-06-05 | 79 | 77 | 63 |
| 2026-06-12 | 79 | 79 | 68 |
| 2026-06-13 | 82 | 81 | 74 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 77 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Before Aug 1, 2026 +13pp 27→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +13pp 35→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +10pp 44→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +9pp 48→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +9pp 54→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 25% probability that the average number of daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0-10 by the end of April 2026. The Strait is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil and liquefied natural gas, typically seeing 60+ transits daily under normal conditions. The current low probability reflects expectations that traffic will remain near historical norms rather than collapse to single or low double-digits. A sharp reduction would require a major disruption—such as military conflict, sanctions escalation, regional instability, or a coordinated shipping diversion. The IMF PortWatch data will definitively resolve this contract on May 1, when April's final figures are released. Related contracts show market participants assign extremely low odds to even 40+ daily transits, suggesting confidence in continued high-volume traffic through the waterway.

### Key factors

- IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average baseline: typical rates exceed 60 transits daily, making a collapse to 0-10 a tail-risk scenario
- Geopolitical stability in the Persian Gulf region as of late April 2026—any military escalation or sanctions regime change would be the primary catalyst for reduced traffic
- Historical traffic data through April 2025 and early 2026 to establish whether recent trends support or contradict low-traffic expectations
- Correlation with crude oil prices and global LNG demand, since shipping disruptions typically accompany broader energy market shocks
- Calendar date of April 30, 2026: final observed transit counts will be locked in within 48 hours, with IMF release typically occurring May 1

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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