# Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May — 0-10

> 0-10 leads at 88%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.681Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 0-10 at 88%
- Runner-up: 10-20 at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10 | 88¢ | +8pp | $12K | polymarket | /markets/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-ma-polymarket-0x20ae35bd487697804e51fbd1e2a2019b977ba0ead721d3cd743211c3e16b15e1 |
| 10-20 | 8¢ | −1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-ma-polymarket-0xaa9e7883499172e6585601542570e05965039265604c8d256c9ff7f149a811d7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0-10 | 10-20 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 65 | 21 |
| 2026-05-26 | 68 | 16 |
| 2026-05-27 | 75 | 9 |
| 2026-05-28 | 83 | 8 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · 0-10 +8pp 75→83¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · 0-10 +7pp 68→75¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · 10-20 −7pp 16→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · 10-20 −5pp 21→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · 0-10 +3pp 65→68¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are currently pricing a 66% probability that the average daily number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will fall between 0-10 by the end of May 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, typically seeing 20-30 vessels per day under normal conditions. The elevated probability of very low transit volumes reflects market expectations of significant disruption to shipping patterns. This could stem from geopolitical tensions, military conflicts, sanctions, or infrastructure damage affecting the region. With the resolution date imminent (May 31, 2026), actual vessel tracking data and shipping manifests will determine the outcome. Traders are heavily weighting the 0-10 range over the 20-40, 40-60, and 60+ categories, suggesting expectations of material disruption rather than normal operations. The relatively high probability also indicates limited confidence in resumed normal traffic flows within the remaining five days of the month.

### Key factors

- Official maritime traffic data (AIS/satellite tracking) showing actual daily average vessel counts from late May 2026 at resolution
- Status of shipping routes and port operations in the Strait region as of May 31, 2026, including any documented closures or restrictions
- Geopolitical or military developments that would materially restrict merchant vessel passage or create routing alternatives
- Insurance premiums and shipping company advisory notices for the Strait corridor, which reflect real-time risk assessment by industry participants
- Comparative baseline: historical average transit volumes (typically 20-30 ships/day) versus the market's implied expectation of sustained disruption

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-may
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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