# What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration

> At least 2000 leads at 86%, runner-up 69% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 33 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avgmeaslesdjt
Updated: 2026-06-29T03:20:49.780Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 2000 at 86%
- Runner-up: At least 2500 at 69%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2000 | 86¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-2000 |
| At least 2500 | 69¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-2500 |
| At least 3000 | 58¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-3000 |
| At least 3500 | 49¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-3500 |
| At least 4000 | 42¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-4000 |
| At least 4500 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-4500 |
| At least 5000 | 30¢ | −1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-5000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 2000 | At least 2500 | At least 3000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 84 | 64 | 54 |
| 2026-06-04 | 85 | 65 | 54 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 68 | 58 |
| 2026-06-13 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 69 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | — | 69 | 58 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates an 86% probability that measles cases will average at least 2,000 annually during the Trump Administration (2025-2029). Measles outbreaks depend primarily on vaccination rates and disease importation, both of which fluctuate based on public health policy, vaccine confidence, and international travel patterns. The market currently reflects relatively high confidence in sustained elevated case counts compared to recent pre-pandemic baselines. Resolution will depend on CDC surveillance data compiled across the full administration term. Key uncertainties include whether vaccination uptake trends continue declining, whether outbreak clusters occur in vulnerable populations, and how health authorities respond to any major cases or regional transmission events.

### Key factors

- CDC measles case counts and vaccination coverage rates reported quarterly—lower vaccination rates typically precede case increases
- Prevalence of vaccine hesitancy messaging and policy changes affecting routine immunization programs during the administration
- International measles importation events and travel patterns, particularly from high-prevalence regions
- Occurrence and magnitude of any regional outbreak clusters that could trigger public response or policy shifts
- Year-over-year comparison to 2024 baseline (preliminary data shows ~260-600 U.S. cases), with 2,000+ annual average representing substantial increase

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avgmeaslesdjt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=avgmeaslesdjt
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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