# Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 68%, runner-up 49% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:53.242Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 68%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 49%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xd4cc9afee05ce80f6b23cc017e3d9f86a7a62eb866e03d7484431a9a55c38cd8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x35fac179b3dbc0289e4000749ccf236afea6d0500b4671939c331fc0b221c35e |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $11 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xf1423f63f1a0ad179af8e4828f4df3595480e6b6ae4cf0dd26cdf4cd74041619 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xad3d5f61260454134827e38aed2f55c4b6ab297f062f27d0cbf63baa70c71797 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8ab58d7d68d2735114ad04e269a9af95e139735de128beb2c765d39dd0489774 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5) | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0x33b10096dcf1eb8d78112d780a46d471b7af00b0ca9944e6c30712f4fccb116d |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xce29520e287e87ae78f2af8b3d8b68c8165203f33c82d9dcc3379088b4204178 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0xf35f621ce574603ed9be29ced4c295540e0fbdffa6f70e74c326153ace076fe2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 62 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 69 | 48 | 42 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · O/U 1.5 +7pp 62→69¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Avispa Fukuoka will score more goals than Kyōto Sanga FC in their upcoming J1 League match. The 38% aggregate probability reflects moderate skepticism about Fukuoka's offensive output relative to Sanga's defense. The 13-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (50%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests divergent assessments of team form or match conditions. Uncertainty will resolve when the match concludes, with the outcome determined by actual goal differential. Key drivers include each team's current league position, recent goal-scoring trends, head-to-head historical records, and tactical approach—factors that typically shift market odds as match day approaches or injury/lineup news emerges. The match itself serves as the single resolution event; no intermediate data releases will affect the outcome.

### Key factors

- Recent form differential: Avispa Fukuoka's goals-for and goals-against averages this season versus Kyōto Sanga FC's defensive record in the same period
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns: Goal differentials in prior matchups between these teams under comparable circumstances
- Team offensive ranking in J1 League standings: Fukuoka's position in league-wide goal-scoring efficiency relative to opponent defensive rankings
- Kalshi-Polymarket discrepancy of 13pp suggests meaningful disagreement on match fundamentals that could reflect different data sources, betting patterns, or model assumptions
- Scheduled match date and venue: Confirmation of when and where the match occurs, as home/away status typically affects scoring probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets

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