# Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC

> Kyōto Sanga FC leads at 40%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:51.345Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Kyōto Sanga FC at 40%
- Runner-up: Avispa Fukuoka at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyōto Sanga FC | 40¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-kyto-sanga-fc-polymarket-0xe6b9d547786ade247dba78e12c650c766fd6347c665d671ee8625c7ee0882783 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-avispa-fukuoka-polymarket-0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c |
| Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-draw-avispa-fukuok-polymarket-0xdf82b18e1af51be650c130d61a97a0967f0095aa7737b396db70d426bd6d7194 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kyōto Sanga FC | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 34 | 42 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 | 42 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 | 41 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 37% probability represents the estimated likelihood that Avispa Fukuoka will defeat Kyōto Sanga FC in an upcoming J-League match. The aggregate probability sits between Kalshi's 30% and Polymarket's 40%, suggesting moderate disagreement across venues about Fukuoka's chances. The probability reflects typical factors in soccer prediction: recent team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and current league standings. The match itself will definitively resolve this uncertainty once played. Bettors appear to view Kyōto as a slight favorite, though the 10-percentage-point gap between venues indicates uncertainty remains about Fukuoka's true win probability.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's 30% implies stronger confidence in Kyōto; Polymarket's 40% suggests moderately closer odds, indicating real disagreement on team strength
- Fukuoka's recent form and win-loss record relative to Kyōto in their last 5-10 matches would be the primary driver of any update
- Home-field status and venue location matter significantly in J-League outcomes; the match location determines a structural advantage
- League table positions and current season performance gaps between the teams establish baseline competitive context
- Head-to-head historical win rates between Avispa and Kyōto provide statistical anchoring for probability calibration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc

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