# Avispa Fukuoka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/avispa-fukuoka-vs-sanfrecce-hiroshima-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:52.204Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $11 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5) | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0x33b10096dcf1eb8d78112d780a46d471b7af00b0ca9944e6c30712f4fccb116d |
| Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) | 11¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0xc674e6a36965fa0e611b5bc6212d2a7beaadfbc9fcd81a46a8bf0be9712bb72c |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xdfd081d9c02c28ff4161a98dc03be658f2c0bf40e507f8417a405fcd4a90ff31 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8ab58d7d68d2735114ad04e269a9af95e139735de128beb2c765d39dd0489774 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xad3d5f61260454134827e38aed2f55c4b6ab297f062f27d0cbf63baa70c71797 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x840caa5bd31d364838b0acbdbfded39a1aa1e0860ceb849b3b03cfcc4c856f30 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xce29520e287e87ae78f2af8b3d8b68c8165203f33c82d9dcc3379088b4204178 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-san-polymarket-0x5cd99b90108f0ff51cfc1b28106407e34736bce3166d090d5905499a2196877d |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x35fac179b3dbc0289e4000749ccf236afea6d0500b4671939c331fc0b221c35e |
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xd4cc9afee05ce80f6b23cc017e3d9f86a7a62eb866e03d7484431a9a55c38cd8 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xf1423f63f1a0ad179af8e4828f4df3595480e6b6ae4cf0dd26cdf4cd74041619 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0xf35f621ce574603ed9be29ced4c295540e0fbdffa6f70e74c326153ace076fe2 |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xa5be96c0387119ddfc9de4d4b7a72ec69206d5fa61b3ce809e7cee8ae97f39c2 |
| Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) | 11¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0x0dd98db188e5654f0d81714fb96f292841ddf74c965b60074c689f3ffaceb64e |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xced5703e0a85d8a914960fee6f941ca5f6ad458021b46f79003d9132621e3f21 |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0x46afc095649ba6fa057372d661624c801f0bce711d6c745012488addeec17592 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) | 8¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-san-polymarket-0x838893bd820ebabcc88ae0a15a2a0d3016c9fde3a49a4c2f41b6c6d2637af108 |
| Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-draw-avispa-fukuok-polymarket-0xdf82b18e1af51be650c130d61a97a0967f0095aa7737b396db70d426bd6d7194 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-avispa-fukuoka-polymarket-0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) +15pp 11→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) +14pp 12→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) +9pp 9→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 1.5 +7pp 62→69¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market represents a 35% probability that additional betting markets will be offered for the Avispa Fukuoka versus Sanfrecce Hiroshima match. The current odds suggest market participants view expanded wagering options as moderately unlikely. The probability reflects typical liquidity patterns for J-League matches—additional markets tend to be offered when initial match interest is high enough to justify the operational cost, but many fixtures receive only baseline market coverage. The resolution depends on whether the bookmaker decides to extend their betting catalog before or during the match. Key drivers include overall betting volume on this particular fixture, competitive positioning between these two teams (which affects projected interest), and the bookmaker's standard market-expansion policies. The outcome will be determined once the match begins or the market deadline passes without additional offerings, providing definitive clarity on whether expanded options were made available.

### Key factors

- Current aggregate probability of 35% indicates less than even odds that expanded markets will be offered, suggesting baseline expectation is limited market expansion for this fixture
- Related J-League matches show mixed market coverage—the linked Hiroshima vs. Kōbe fixture has zero 24-hour volume on secondary markets, indicating sparse liquidity interest across similar matchups
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima appears in multiple contract listings with lower individual prices (23¢ on spread, 55¢ on BTTS), while Avispa Fukuoka prices vary (38¢ spread, 48¢ BTTS), showing asymmetric bookmaker confidence in different match outcomes
- All top contracts show $0 24-hour volume, indicating minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect current bookmaker intentions
- The resolution date is deterministic—additional markets either exist or do not exist when the match launches, making this a binary outcome with no ambiguity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=avispa-fukuoka-vs-sanfrecce-hiroshima-more-markets

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