# AZ-05 House Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/az05-house-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Republican Party at 81%
- Runner-up: Democratic Party at 14%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican Party | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/az-05-house-election-winner-republican-party-polymarket-0xcc842c2fed3a0714caf0a408fa4fd7a3d0cf36c57adc02d0830a3612d4373a14 |
| Democratic Party | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/az-05-house-election-winner-democratic-party-polymarket-0xfd7a5a3fd5a35afb3c1e4580e11616fc0f7faf332d3c95c5e93fe50f81b0e312 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Republican Party | Democratic Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | — | 17 |
| 2026-05-25 | 82 | 18 |
| 2026-05-27 | 82 | 16 |
| 2026-06-04 | 81 | 15 |
| 2026-06-05 | 81 | 14 |
| 2026-06-06 | 81 | 15 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 15 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The AZ-05 House race shows a 54% probability for one candidate, indicating a highly competitive matchup. This reflects a district where recent electoral performance and demographic trends create genuine uncertainty about the outcome. The main factors affecting this probability are candidate quality and campaign effectiveness, along with broader national political sentiment that could shift in either party's favor heading into the general election. The race will likely become more certain as Election Day approaches and final polling data emerges, with campaign spending, candidate debate performance, and late-breaking news potentially moving the probability significantly in either direction.

### Key factors

- District voting history in recent elections (2020, 2022) compared to current candidate positioning
- Relative campaign funding and spending levels between the two major party candidates
- Late polling averages and trend direction in the final weeks before election day
- Voter registration changes and turnout patterns specific to AZ-05's demographic composition
- Performance of top-of-ticket candidates in this district versus their statewide averages

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/az05-house-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=az05-house-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.