# Will Travis Grantham be the Republican nominee for AZ-5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 2 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/az5r
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.623Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Keenan | 43¢ | +9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-daniel-keenan-be-the-republican-nominee-for-a-kalshi-kxaz5r-26-dkee |
| Mark Lamb | 52¢ | −1pp | $741 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-lamb-be-the-republican-nominee-for-az-5-kalshi-kxaz5r-26-mlam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 94 |
| 2026-05-14 | 93 |
| 2026-05-21 | 83 |
| 2026-05-28 | 51 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Daniel Keenan +22pp 10→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Mark Lamb −13pp 83→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Daniel Keenan +9pp 32→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Mark Lamb −7pp 70→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Mark Lamb −5pp 88→83¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects trader expectations that Travis Grantham will win the Republican primary for Arizona's 5th congressional district. The 80% level suggests Grantham is viewed as the clear frontrunner, though not yet certain. Primary outcomes depend on candidate field composition, endorsement patterns, and voter preferences in this particular district. The election in August 2026 will definitively resolve this question. Until then, shifts in this probability would likely track changes in candidate announcements, polling data if released, or endorsement moves by local Republican party figures. Campaign funding and on-the-ground organization differences between candidates could also influence the outcome.

### Key factors

- Whether Mark Lamb or other candidates enter the race, as candidate field size significantly affects primary math
- Public polling results or internal polling leaks showing voter preferences among Republican primary voters in AZ-5
- Endorsements from Arizona Republican establishment figures, particularly the state party chair or current Arizona delegation members
- Campaign finance data showing funding disparities and resource allocation among declared candidates
- Turnout patterns in the Republican primary relative to historical AZ-5 election cycles, as turnout composition can shift primary dynamics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/az5r
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=az5r
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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