# Will Maria Flores be the Democratic nominee for AZ-08

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 54% across 7 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/azprimary
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.905Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 54% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $694

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Newkirk | 17¢ | −1pp | $407 | kalshi | /markets/will-kai-newkirk-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-az-kalshi-kxazprimary-04d26-knew |
| Greg Stanton | 78¢ | +1pp | $222 | kalshi | /markets/will-greg-stanton-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-az-kalshi-kxazprimary-04d26-gsta |
| Raymond Keeler | 13¢ | — | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-raymond-keeler-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxazprimary-08d26-rkee |
| Zuhdi Jasser | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zuhdi-jasser-be-the-republican-nominee-for-az-kalshi-kxazprimary-04r26-zjas |
| Chris James | 20¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-james-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-az-kalshi-kxazprimary-05d26-cjam |
| Elizabeth Lee | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elizabeth-lee-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-a-kalshi-kxazprimary-05d26-elee |
| Bernadette Greene Placentia | 80¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernadette-greene-placentia-be-the-democratic-kalshi-kxazprimary-08d26-bpla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 47 |
| 2026-06-13 | 7 |
| 2026-06-20 | 20 |
| 2026-06-24 | 81 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Chris James +10pp 10→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Elizabeth Lee −6pp 78→72¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the odds that Maria Flores will win the Democratic primary for Arizona's 8th congressional district. Currently priced at 30%, Flores ranks behind frontrunner Bernadette Greene Placentia (67%) and competitor Raymond Keeler (25%) in market expectations. The probability depends on primary election dynamics, candidate fundraising levels, endorsements from party officials, and recent polling data in the district. The AZ-08 Democratic primary will ultimately resolve this uncertainty when voters cast ballots. Market participants are calibrating these odds based on each candidate's demonstrated organizational strength, name recognition, and ability to mobilize voters in this competitive race.

### Key factors

- Bernadette Greene Placentia holds 67% probability, suggesting markets view her as the clear frontrunner with superior resources or polling
- Raymond Keeler at 25% probability indicates at least two other viable candidates are splitting support
- Combined probability of named candidates (Flores, Greene Placentia, Keeler) totals 122%, suggesting either market overlap or unnamed candidates receiving non-zero probability
- Primary election date and ballot access deadlines will constrain candidate field and clarify viability
- Fundraising totals and recent polling from reputable AZ-08 sources would directly inform whether market pricing reflects current ground conditions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/azprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=azprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.