# Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.57 on Dec 31

> Above $2.27 leads at 90%, runner-up 89% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200max
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.255Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.27 at 90%
- Runner-up: Above $3.17 at 89%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $702

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.27 | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-227-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-2.270 |
| Above $3.17 | 89¢ | +22pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-317-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-3.170 |
| Above $2.57 | 88¢ | — | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-257-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-2.570 |
| Above $2.87 | 88¢ | +21pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-287-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-2.870 |
| Above $3.47 | 88¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-347-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-3.470 |
| Above $4.07 | 79¢ | +25pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-407-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-4.070 |
| Above $3.77 | 78¢ | — | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-377-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-3.770 |
| Above $4.37 | 76¢ | +15pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-437-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-4.370 |
| Above $4.67 | 72¢ | +19pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-467-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-4.670 |
| Above $4.97 | 70¢ | +32pp | $58 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-497-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-4.970 |
| Above $5.27 | 69¢ | +17pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-527-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-5.270 |
| Above $5.57 | 67¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-557-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-5.570 |
| Above $5.87 | 50¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-587-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-5.870 |
| Above $6.17 | 48¢ | +17pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-617-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-6.170 |
| Above $6.77 | 43¢ | +18pp | $164 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-677-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-6.770 |
| Above $6.47 | 42¢ | — | $146 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-647-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-6.470 |
| Above $7.07 | 38¢ | +13pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-707-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-7.070 |
| Above $7.37 | 33¢ | — | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-737-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-7.370 |
| Above $7.67 | 25¢ | — | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-767-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-7.670 |
| Above $7.97 | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-797-kalshi-kxb200max-26dec31-7.970 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.27 | Above $3.17 | Above $2.57 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 73 | 67 | 72 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 89 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Above $4.97 +32pp 38→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $5.57 +30pp 37→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $4.07 +25pp 54→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $3.47 +24pp 64→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $3.17 +22pp 67→89¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses the likelihood that Nvidia's B200 GPU will cost above $5.57 per compute hour by year-end 2026. The 90% probability reflects strong trader confidence in price exceeding the $2.27 threshold, with progressively lower odds at higher price tiers ($5.27 at 69%, $6.47 at 42%). Current pricing dynamics depend on GPU supply levels, datacenter demand, and competitive offerings from AMD and other manufacturers. The main resolution driver will be actual B200 pricing announced or published by December 31, 2026. Traders pricing this high suggest they expect either sustained GPU scarcity, strong enterprise demand, or limited competitive pricing pressure through year-end. The gap between the 90% floor price and 42% for the $6.47 threshold indicates uncertainty about whether prices will sustain at premium levels or normalize as supply increases.

### Key factors

- Current B200 market pricing and availability as of mid-2026 will constrain upward movement; prices unlikely to exceed $5.57 if supply normalizes significantly
- Datacenter AI infrastructure spending growth through Q4 2026 directly influences demand elasticity and willingness to pay for premium compute capacity
- Competitive pricing from AMD's MI-series GPUs and other accelerators will create downward pressure if they achieve meaningful market share gains
- The specific metric definition for 'compute per hour price' must match how Nvidia or third-party pricing databases actually report B200 costs by December 31
- Supply chain capacity and manufacturing yields for B200 production determine whether sufficient inventory exists to satisfy demand at current pricing levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200max
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=b200max

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.