# Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's B200 be above $4.50 in August 2026

> Above $4.50 leads at 84%, runner-up 60% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200ms
Updated: 2026-06-19T09:20:17.725Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $4.50 at 84%
- Runner-up: Above $4.00 at 60%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.50 | 84¢ | — | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26jun-4.500 |
| Above $4.00 | 60¢ | −18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-4.000 |
| Above $4.50 | 48¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-4.500 |
| Above $5.50 | 37¢ | +12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27jan-5.500 |
| Above $5.00 | 35¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-5.000 |
| Above $6.00 | 33¢ | +14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27mar-6.000 |
| Above $6.00 | 33¢ | +4pp | $911 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27apr-6.000 |
| Above $6.00 | 32¢ | +11pp | $515 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27feb-6.000 |
| Above $6.00 | 31¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26dec-6.000 |
| Above $6.50 | 29¢ | +5pp | $135 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27mar-6.500 |
| Above $6.50 | 28¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27feb-6.500 |
| Above $5.50 | 27¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-5.500 |
| Above $6.50 | 26¢ | +5pp | $917 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27jan-6.500 |
| Above $7.00 | 26¢ | +8pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-27mar-7.000 |
| Above $6.00 | 19¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-6.000 |
| Above $6.50 | 14¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-6.500 |
| Above $7.00 | 8¢ | −4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26aug-7.000 |
| Above $5.50 | 6¢ | −12pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26jun-5.500 |
| Above $7.00 | 5¢ | −15pp | $447 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26jul-7.000 |
| Above $7.00 | 5¢ | — | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxb200ms-26jun-7.000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.50 | Above $4.00 | Above $4.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 44 | 76 | 38 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 58 | 45 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Above $4.00 −18pp 76→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $7.00 −15pp 20→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $6.00 +14pp 19→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $5.50 +12pp 25→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $5.50 −12pp 16→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contracts markets assesses whether NVIDIA's B200 accelerator will trade at an average monthly price above $4.50 in August 2026, currently priced at 65% probability. The B200, NVIDIA's latest flagship compute chip, represents a significant upgrade to their GPU lineup, and its pricing trajectory reflects broader dynamics in AI accelerator demand and supply constraints. Market participants are pricing in a moderately high likelihood of above-$4.50 pricing for August, which sits between the more heavily-trafficked July threshold ($4.00 at 66% on Kalshi) and longer-dated expectations for higher prices. The main factors influencing this estimate are current spot-market pricing in June 2026, near-term supply-demand balance as production ramps, and whether competitive pressure from alternative accelerators emerges. Resolution depends on reported average monthly pricing data for the B200 in August; spot pricing trajectories through July will provide early signals about the August outcome.

### Key factors

- Current spot pricing for B200 in June 2026 and trend momentum into July—prices near or above $4.50 already suggest higher probability; sustained pricing below $4.00 would lower it
- Production volume and allocation constraints throughout Q3 2026—tight supply typically supports higher marginal pricing; expanded inventory could exert downward pressure
- Competitive GPU launch activity between July and August, particularly from AMD or other vendors, could disrupt B200's pricing premium
- Data center procurement patterns and customer inventory levels—heavy demand with tight budgets supports price maintenance; demand weakness or bulk contract deals at discounts could lower average pricing
- NVIDIA's official list pricing strategy and any announced price adjustments for the B200 during the June-August window

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200ms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=b200ms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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