# Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 by Jun 30

> Above $3.67 leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200q
Updated: 2026-06-15T18:20:50.699Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $3.67 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $3.67 at 97%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.07 | 97¢ | +2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-407-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-4.070 |
| Above $3.67 | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-367-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-3.670 |
| Above $3.87 | 97¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-387-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-3.870 |
| Above $4.27 | 93¢ | +10pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-427-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-4.270 |
| Above $4.47 | 80¢ | +11pp | $135 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-447-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-4.470 |
| Above $4.67 | 70¢ | +20pp | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-467-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-4.670 |
| Above $4.87 | 66¢ | −6pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-487-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-4.870 |
| Above $5.47 | 54¢ | −4pp | $510 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-547-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-5.470 |
| Above $5.27 | 54¢ | −6pp | $213 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-527-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-5.270 |
| Above $5.67 | 44¢ | +1pp | $316 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-567-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-5.670 |
| Above $6.07 | 33¢ | +1pp | $970 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-607-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-6.070 |
| Above $5.87 | 33¢ | +2pp | $882 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-587-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-5.870 |
| Above $5.07 | 32¢ | −6pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-507-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-5.070 |
| Above $6.27 | 11¢ | −4pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-627-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-6.270 |
| Above $6.67 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-667-kalshi-kxb200q-26jun30-6.670 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $4.07 | Above $3.67 | Above $3.87 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 57 | 61 | 63 |
| 2026-05-31 | 87 | 67 | 94 |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 29 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 43 | 10 | 12 |
| 2026-06-13 | 96 | 97 | 96 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · Above $4.87 −63pp 83→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Above $3.87 −57pp 69→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Above $3.67 +56pp 27→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Above $3.87 +44pp 37→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Above $4.47 +42pp 12→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that Blackwell B200 GPU compute pricing will remain above $4.07 per hour through June 30th, 2026. The 97% probability on the next-tier price point ($3.27) versus lower probabilities for higher thresholds ($4.47 at 76%, $3.87 at 93%) suggests traders expect modest price stability or slight increases rather than sharp movement. Current pricing depends on supply-demand dynamics for enterprise AI compute, competition from alternative providers, and customer demand for B200 capacity. The main uncertainty centers on whether bulk pricing discounts or overcapacity will emerge before month-end, or conversely whether constrained supply sustains higher rates. The closest catalyst is observed pricing data from major cloud providers over the remaining month, which will either validate current estimates or force repricing if actual rates diverge materially from current thresholds.

### Key factors

- Current B200 hourly pricing across major providers relative to the $4.07 threshold, with observed rates determining resolution
- Enterprise demand trends for Blackwell compute through June, including whether adoption accelerates or plateaus
- Competitive pricing actions from alternative GPU providers that might pressure B200 rates downward
- Supply constraints or utilization rates that could support higher pricing if capacity remains limited
- Any announced pricing changes from major cloud platforms before June 30th deadline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200q
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=b200q

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.