# Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03

> Above $3.00 leads at 92%, runner-up 89% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200ws
Updated: 2026-06-19T10:20:19.845Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above $3.00 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above $3.00 at 89%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3.00 | 92¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul03-3.000 |
| Above $3.00 | 89¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul10-3.000 |
| Above $3.00 | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul17-3.000 |
| Above $3.50 | 82¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul03-3.500 |
| Above $3.50 | 77¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul10-3.500 |
| Above $3.50 | 74¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul17-3.500 |
| Above $4.00 | 55¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul10-4.000 |
| Above $4.00 | 54¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul17-4.000 |
| Above $4.50 | 34¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul17-4.500 |
| Above $4.50 | 32¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul10-4.500 |
| Above $5.00 | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul17-5.000 |
| Above $5.00 | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul10-5.000 |
| Above $5.50 | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul17-5.500 |
| Above $5.50 | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-b200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxb200ws-26jul10-5.500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $3.00 | Above $3.00 | Above $3.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 62 | 60 | 59 |
| 2026-06-18 | 70 | 68 | 59 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Above $3.00 +8pp 60→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $3.00 +8pp 62→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $3.50 +7pp 56→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $3.50 +6pp 54→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $4.00 +4pp 40→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that NVIDIA's B200 GPU will cost more than $3 per hour of compute time on July 3, 2026. The 92% probability reflects strong market confidence in pricing above this threshold, though the sharp decline across higher price points ($3.50, $4.00, $5.00) suggests substantial uncertainty about the upper range. B200 pricing depends on NVIDIA's official rate announcements, cloud provider markups, and competitive pressures from alternative accelerators. The resolution hinges on verified pricing data from major cloud platforms (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) at the specified time. Traders should note the wide gap between near-term confidence (92% above $3) and lower expectations for premium pricing (17% above $5), indicating disagreement about market conditions and competitive dynamics in the compute market over the next two weeks.

### Key factors

- Official B200 pricing announcements or leaked rates from NVIDIA between now and July 3
- Cloud provider pricing for B200 compute, which typically reflects base costs plus markup and may vary across AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure
- Competitive pricing pressure from alternative high-performance GPUs (H100, H200, A100) and other accelerators available on the market
- Historical pattern of NVIDIA GPU compute pricing relative to base hardware cost and demand elasticity
- Real-time availability and demand signals that could push cloud providers to adjust B200 pricing upward or downward

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/b200ws
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=b200ws
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.