# Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 700 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026

> Above 560 leads at 91%, runner-up 89% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/baa
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.655Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 560 at 91%
- Runner-up: Above 600 at 89%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 560 | 91¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-560-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-560 |
| Above 600 | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-600-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-600 |
| Above 580 | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-580-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-580 |
| Above 620 | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-620-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-620 |
| Above 640 | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-640-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-640 |
| Above 660 | 46¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-660-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-660 |
| Above 680 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-680-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-680 |
| Above 700 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boeing-company-the-report-above-700-commercia-kalshi-kxbaa-28jandeliv-700 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 560 | Above 600 | Above 580 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 91 | 74 | 84 |
| 2026-06-14 | 98 | 91 | 92 |
| 2026-06-15 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-06-21 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-06-23 | 92 | 90 | 87 |
| 2026-06-26 | 91 | — | 86 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 580 −3pp 90→87¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Boeing will deliver more than 700 commercial aircraft in 2026. The market currently assigns 93% probability to Boeing exceeding 560 deliveries, but only 5% probability to exceeding 700, reflecting steep uncertainty about higher production levels. Boeing's delivery trajectory depends on manufacturing capacity recovery following recent quality and safety scrutiny, supply chain constraints, and workforce availability. The company has stated targets around 600+ deliveries, making 700+ a significant stretch. Resolution will occur when Boeing reports full-year 2026 delivery figures, typically in January 2027. Near-term catalysts include quarterly earnings reports and any production rate guidance updates throughout 2026.

### Key factors

- Boeing's stated 2026 production guidance and any formal updates to delivery rate targets
- Supply chain capacity and component availability constraints that limit assembly throughput
- FAA certification and quality inspection timelines affecting aircraft release for delivery
- Actual year-to-date deliveries through Q3 2026 as a predictor of full-year potential
- Customer acceptance rates and deferrals, which influence whether built aircraft are formally delivered

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/baa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=baa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.