# Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bab-elmandeb-strait-effectively-closed
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-04-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22 | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-22-polymarket-0xcd22707a80bba2d2ce0622e9a3605d82b766285b50ef20745a1d4bb7435cbd27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 35 |
| 2026-06-12 | 2 |
| 2026-06-15 | 1 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · June 22 −7pp 9→2¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical waterway between Yemen and Djibouti through which roughly 12% of global maritime trade passes—becomes effectively closed to normal shipping operations by a specified date. The strait has experienced periodic disruptions from Houthi attacks on vessels since 2023, but remains functionally open with reduced traffic and increased insurance costs. The current 3% probability reflects the view that a complete or near-complete closure is unlikely in the near term, though it could rise if attacks intensify significantly, international naval presence decreases, or conflict escalates in the region. Key catalysts include changes in Houthi military capability, shifts in international enforcement efforts, or formal announcements from major shipping operators about route abandonment. Resolution would depend on whether independent shipping data and port records show traffic volumes falling below a defined threshold.

### Key factors

- Houthi attack frequency and capability—current attacks have not prevented transits but increased them; a sustained spike in hits or successful attacks on larger vessels could shift market expectations
- International naval presence and coordination—multiple countries maintain anti-piracy and anti-drone operations; withdrawal or reduced patrols would remove a key constraint on closure
- Shipping industry rerouting—companies have diverted around the Cape of Good Hope when risk premiums spike; formal abandonment by major carriers would signal market belief in closure risk
- Formal announcements from regional authorities or major port operators regarding traffic suspension or emergency protocols
- Insurance rates and transit cost premiums—these provide real-time market signals of perceived closure risk, though high premiums alone do not indicate effective closure

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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