# Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026

> Above $6.2 trillion leads at 90%, runner-up 89% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/balancesheet
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.562Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above $6.2 trillion at 90%
- Runner-up: Above $6.3 trillion at 89%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.2 trillion | 90¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-62-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.2 |
| Above $6.3 trillion | 89¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-63-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.3 |
| Above $6.4 trillion | 87¢ | +60pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-64-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.4 |
| Above $6.5 trillion | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-65-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.5 |
| Above $6.6 trillion | 80¢ | +78pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-66-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.6 |
| Above $6.7 trillion | 71¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-67-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.7 |
| Above $6.8 trillion | 43¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-68-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.8 |
| Above $6.9 trillion | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-69-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-6.9 |
| Above $7.0 trillion | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-70-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-7.0 |
| Above $7.1 trillion | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/size-of-fed-balance-sheet-on-dec-30-2026-above-71-kalshi-kxbalancesheet-eo26-7.1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $6.2 trillion | Above $6.3 trillion | Above $6.4 trillion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| 2026-06-01 | 22 | 21 | 27 |
| 2026-06-04 | — | — | 87 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Above $6.5 trillion +81pp 2→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Above $6.6 trillion +78pp 2→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Above $6.7 trillion +69pp 1→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above $6.4 trillion +60pp 27→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Above $6.2 trillion +11pp 11→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will reach a specific size threshold by December 30, 2026. The current 46% probability reflects uncertainty about the Fed's monetary policy path over the next seven months, particularly whether interest rates remain elevated or decline. The primary driver is the pace of interest rate cuts between now and December's final Fed meeting. If inflation remains persistent and the Fed maintains or raises rates, the balance sheet is less likely to expand. Conversely, if economic conditions weaken and the Fed cuts rates aggressively, asset purchases may increase, expanding the balance sheet. The December 9 FOMC meeting represents the key decision point closest to year-end, where the Fed will signal its final policy stance and any extraordinary measures.

### Key factors

- The upper bound of the federal funds rate is priced to remain between 3.25% and 3.50% after the December 2026 meeting, based on contract prices, suggesting markets expect modest rate cuts rather than aggressive easing
- June 2026 expectations show 56% probability of no rate change and zero dissents, indicating near-term policy stability that could constrain balance sheet expansion
- Inflation data releases between now and December 9 will significantly influence whether the Fed maintains restrictive policy or begins additional accommodative measures like asset purchases
- The December 9 FOMC meeting is the final scheduled decision before year-end and will determine the policy framework that shapes balance sheet size through December 30
- Market pricing shows very low probabilities for rates above 4.0% by December, with only 7¢ pricing on above-4.0% scenarios, suggesting limited expectations for aggressive tightening

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/balancesheet
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=balancesheet
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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