# Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets: CDT Real Oruro (-1.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 4 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets-cdt-real
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:50:34.513Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 25% / Polymarket 27% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $91K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 6¢ | +1pp | $76K | polymarket | /markets/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-champion-montreal-canadiens-polymarket-0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca |
| Montreal Canadiens | 14¢ | +4pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/eastern-conference-finals-winner-montreal-canadien-kalshi-kxnhleast-26-mtl |
| Above 2.5% | 36¢ | +1pp | $830 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-25-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t2.5 |
| Winner: Real Potosí | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bolivia-lfpb-winner-real-potos-polymarket-0x9e89781fdd957290102979979de5e2ff5977e9de54776958f9de771f1b908ea8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Montreal Canadiens +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Montreal Canadiens −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Montreal Canadiens +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 40% probability that CDT Real Oruro will lose by more than 1.5 goals to Bamin Real Potosí in an upcoming Bolivian football match. The aggregated probability shows an 8-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing it slightly higher at 46% versus Polymarket at 38%, suggesting some disagreement about Oruro's likely margin of defeat. The probability would move based on team form, injury status, and head-to-head records leading into match day. Resolution depends entirely on the final score when the match concludes, which typically occurs within the standard football calendar window. Recent performance trends and home-field advantage for Potosí would be the primary drivers of significant probability shifts.

### Key factors

- Team form in recent matches: current winning percentage and goal differential for both squads in their last 5-10 games
- Head-to-head historical record: Potosí's performance against Oruro in prior encounters, particularly margin of victory patterns
- Home-field advantage: Potosí playing at altitude in Potosí versus Oruro's conditions and historical home/away splits
- Injury and roster availability: key player absences for either team that would significantly impact attacking or defensive capability
- Closing odds movement: direction and magnitude of probability shift in final 24-48 hours before match kickoff

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets-cdt-real
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets-cdt-real

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