# Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 4 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.202Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 25% / Polymarket 28% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $92K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 7¢ | +1pp | $76K | polymarket | /markets/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-champion-montreal-canadiens-polymarket-0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca |
| Montreal Canadiens | 14¢ | +4pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/eastern-conference-finals-winner-montreal-canadien-kalshi-kxnhleast-26-mtl |
| Above 2.5% | 36¢ | +1pp | $823 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-25-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t2.5 |
| Winner: Real Potosí | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bolivia-lfpb-winner-real-potos-polymarket-0x9e89781fdd957290102979979de5e2ff5977e9de54776958f9de771f1b908ea8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Montreal Canadiens +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Montreal Canadiens −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Montreal Canadiens +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood of a specific outcome in a matchup between Bamin Real Potosí and CDT Real Oruro. The 37% probability sits at a modest level, with modest disagreement between venues—Kalshi users price it 2 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants. The current pricing likely reflects available team information, historical performance data, and any relevant contextual factors about these teams' recent form. Key drivers of movement would include confirmed roster changes, injury reports, or updated performance metrics in the weeks leading up to the event. The main catalyst that would resolve uncertainty would be the scheduled match itself, which would definitively determine the outcome and collapse the probability to either 0% or 100%.

### Key factors

- Cross-venue probability gap of 2 percentage points suggests modest disagreement in market assessment
- Aggregate probability of 37% indicates this outcome is favored to not occur more often than occur
- Kalshi contracts average 39% while Polymarket averages 37%, indicating slight platform-level differences in information interpretation
- Current pricing incorporates available team statistics and recent performance data as of late April 2026
- Match outcome will be definitively resolved upon completion of the scheduled event, collapsing uncertainty

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets

## License

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