# Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 4 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.094Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 26% / Polymarket 28% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $92K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 8¢ | +1pp | $76K | polymarket | /markets/2026-nhl-stanley-cup-champion-montreal-canadiens-polymarket-0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca |
| Montreal Canadiens | 15¢ | −2pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/eastern-conference-finals-winner-montreal-canadien-kalshi-kxnhleast-26-mtl |
| Above 2.5% | 36¢ | ±0 | $823 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-25-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t2.5 |
| Winner: Real Potosí | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bolivia-lfpb-winner-real-potos-polymarket-0x9e89781fdd957290102979979de5e2ff5977e9de54776958f9de771f1b908ea8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Montreal Canadiens +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Montreal Canadiens −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Bamin Real Potosí will defeat CDT Real Oruro in an upcoming match. The 40% probability reflects a slight favoring of CDT Real Oruro, though the 8-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests some disagreement in market pricing. Key drivers of this probability include recent team form, head-to-head performance history, and current league standings. The match outcome will be determined by the final whistle on the scheduled game date, which will provide definitive resolution of this uncertainty. Bettors are pricing in factors such as home-field advantage if applicable, recent injuries or roster changes, and historical patterns in this regional Bolivian matchup.

### Key factors

- Recent match results and win-loss records for both teams in the current season
- Head-to-head historical performance between Bamin Real Potosí and CDT Real Oruro over the past 2-3 seasons
- Current league standings and points differential that would affect playoff positioning or relegation implications
- Availability of key players due to injury, suspension, or international call-ups at time of match
- Home versus away venue designation and historical performance differential for each team in their respective stadiums

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bamin-real-potos-vs-cdt-real-oruro

## License

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