# Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club Guabirá

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-club-guabir
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:49.387Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 49% / Polymarket 32% — 17pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otakar Esports | 33¢ | +1pp | $893 | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-the-ucam-esports-club-vs-o-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ota |
| CA Lanús | 21¢ | — | $260 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-ca-lans-polymarket-0x4eec59e01470b72978c3eb8d56e7610e1e53db931b6fc627b1cd4f6c489c304b |
| UCAM Esports Club | 64¢ | +48pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucam-esports-club-win-the-ucam-esports-club-v-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ucam |
| Club Always Ready (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-more-markets-club-alw-polymarket-0x2e9327d3fc06b834c10d798e26e1da1682fca58506cc66136cd0b86f9a62c801 |
| Draw (CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia) | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-barracas-central-vs-club-olimpia-draw-ca-barrac-polymarket-0x56b99e08aa98928f055e0e6f0490d58a7eb0c26d89c9db450bd099de789ce1d8 |
| CA Rosario Central (-2.5) | 19¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x178a18f318990fe5e5e0543e2ed12941dac3b6f0e307b6ffe60800456150e4f2 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x491b922a9ca612e784c2bc1d6719fdbb5a2e2123c8aa34577c74360e9fdfd453 |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x3e4cd18c12ca4f8e211f379156f7b2b95a309807f2789c32285453fccfbdc9a0 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x3c0f5f3aea6ef7547c858fb365c7b8075f59577d743448941442029191695d9f |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x21ed5aba5907f2ff4e00718c5dd36c1a349116f982ae00f4e44f1eafb5d15e0d |
| Ismaily SC (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xaa1d2cf2e3fb0c19ffa4ed284b48d773535b110c5f32aebad7c9f6bab9136cde |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5d63d2f688c2e4b13f5e7bd161cd631fb069fdb4b896d52314d980484ec8892c |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| Club Nacional de Football (-1.5) | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xa229d814c0cfd5d1b08fe3cb257ef751317a948c8282b05e9b5abbd46ef4a31e |
| CD Tolima (-1.5) | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x404209171166b118cf63d3e3f1f1a4cca653dcbd737f4286da40654005230d40 |
| CD Tolima (-2.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xe39b53cc6e56ef3b794d56089bd9c423d93cd45ea17ab97da86fb771480be126 |
| Club Nacional de Football (-2.5) | 7¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xbb148bed811390380b0e78496c32b55114ad30d56a12ecc4a2ea600300b8bc47 |
| O/U 1.5 | 66¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xfdd357904976eecb735dafdc4290a16944355e04fb579a734bc6b4a10cd399cb |
| Ismaily SC (-2.5) | 34¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xd8cc8e7ce91b78e9f94dd031d031fe1799684028b35e52ff51d372d1e609ab19 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · UCAM Esports Club +48pp 15→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · UCAM Esports Club +11pp 4→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Otakar Esports +8pp 5→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · CA Rosario Central (-2.5) +4pp 19→23¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bamin-real-potos-vs-club-guabir
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bamin-real-potos-vs-club-guabir

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.