# Bank of Brazil decision in August

> 25 bps decrease leads at 58%, runner-up 35% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-brazil-decision-august
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:12.023Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-04

## Headline

- Leader: 25 bps decrease at 58%
- Runner-up: No Change at 35%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $648

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps decrease | 58¢ | +1pp | $261 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-august-25-bps-decrease-polymarket-0x72c0a78cc4255678e80c3b13117a3d6c4134151963cb2e8bfb62478a71e5385e |
| No Change | 35¢ | +2pp | $99 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-august-no-change-polymarket-0xa58e20682b23995b0fd20964962e6388727bf15fb004206cae740462f7d181cf |
| 50+ bps decrease | 8¢ | −1pp | $89 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-august-50-bps-decrease-polymarket-0xbbf51c04cf05c3a99e590db75b95fc651e788870d26f983cfd2c42e9b4c9e0b5 |
| 50+ bps increase | 5¢ | +1pp | $89 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-august-50-bps-increase-polymarket-0x7b45e6eead7cbcb63e242ba0a771ed324c22cf36b96df0c1562be42bd1f6e777 |
| 25 bps increase | 4¢ | ±0 | $110 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-august-25-bps-increase-polymarket-0x3fafa3875ae13cd82752078cfecb760cca897a352c045d2fdc42784024d2718d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 25 bps decrease | No Change | 50+ bps decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 56 | 37 | 15 |
| 2026-05-26 | 60 | 35 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 62 | 32 | 8 |
| 2026-05-28 | 63 | 34 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · 50+ bps decrease −6pp 15→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · 25 bps decrease +4pp 56→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · No Change −3pp 35→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are currently pricing a 59% likelihood that Brazil's central bank will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its August 2026 meeting, with a 35% probability assigned to holding rates steady. This reflects expectations about inflation trends, economic growth, and monetary policy direction in Brazil over the coming months. The pricing suggests traders believe a quarter-point reduction is more likely than no change, though the gap is meaningful rather than overwhelming. The August decision will depend heavily on inflation data releases between now and then, as well as broader economic indicators like employment and GDP growth. Market participants will be watching monthly inflation reports and any forward guidance from central bank officials to refine their expectations. The resolution of this contract will occur when the central bank announces its official policy decision in August.

### Key factors

- Market assigns 59% to 25bp cut vs 35% to no change, indicating modest but not dominant conviction in easing
- Volume concentration in 'No Change' contract ($257 24h vol) versus 'Decrease' contract ($75 24h vol) suggests disagreement among traders on the baseline scenario
- Inflation data releases and employment figures between now and August will be primary drivers of contract repricing
- Central bank forward guidance and communications will influence expectations ahead of the August meeting date
- Very low probabilities assigned to rate increases (5% and 3% combined) indicate minimal market expectation of tightening

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-brazil-decision-august
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bank-of-brazil-decision-august

## License

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