# Bank of England decision in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-england-decision-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:53.460Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 55% / Polymarket 47% — 8pp spread
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 5¢ | −5pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-may-no-chang-polymarket-0x15b28500fbbbe23185f4e343fe7ff39921a0e56334472a6c6bc1ddf7c3e2d6da |
| Increase | 95¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-may-increase-polymarket-0x2ed04f1752e07f0bc7eb940d869779080f51f989ff81e812a951401f525298a1 |
| No change | 8¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0xa919b6a7cc8c958d82141ec2ba77b8fe813083a7ee2083178305c409ae28ce0d |
| Decrease | 93¢ | +2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-may-decrease-polymarket-0x5d5a4729071ff8d9d878210312f132d3691ce6fbbd2f01aebd4546b23e7b624c |
| 25 bps increase | 53¢ | +1pp | $301 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june-25-bps-increase-polymarket-0xb3237c597bd198f2e5af2d9c2597c71cdda3ab88649a410a917798b3eec8cff4 |
| No Change | 94¢ | +2pp | $228 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-korea-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0x31d7a76e9bd1ad98cd5b16e7605169720d5ea7df577e2ceef6b9dc533b19b0fe |
| No Change | 21¢ | +8pp | $197 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-russia-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xe2da9a8cdf0abbe6b6b89cef2fc14ae7686419c33606d696bd15d8ccf302a818 |
| Maintain current rate | 61¢ | −1pp | $181 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-maintain-current-rate-at-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-hold |
| Decrease | 80¢ | −3pp | $148 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-russia-decision-in-june-decrease-polymarket-0x1daa856d50fe01a0bf8f8bb168705fc6ae929faa0f00252fb7ad3461c8db7a3d |
| Puffin | 75¢ | ±0 | $135 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-inclusion-of-puffin-on-the-2026-bank-of-e-kalshi-kxwildsht-26-puf |
| No Change | 49¢ | ±0 | $134 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0x430c82b739789b90fd5f95929d03223f332808122327c8b69424793a5bad3daf |
| Decrease | 53¢ | +2pp | $108 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-may-decrease-polymarket-0x47381a493e81772f69e695d4de92695602eb353caa4a7a3bbf3b5df2ffa7ec74 |
| Hike 1-25bps | 29¢ | −1pp | $92 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-hike-1-25bps-at-the-june-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-h25 |
| Increase | 3¢ | −2pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-canada-decision-in-june-increase-polymarket-0x146cdf818590e91110ab0ec950b367020625c792ce1953f12bb5e7c439643797 |
| No Change | 19¢ | +2pp | $33 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0x0111a2756734a64f9d70fd6b8f8ed3bb583b19935a2fccc62b0c98b3f1557eac |
| No change | 94¢ | +1pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-canada-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xaa5aa8844cdcb27f9224d55472a4017788d54e36080250c7b6c63d537fb3d6de |
| No change | 68¢ | +2pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-england-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0x817d4b78894e48d96d85a6e016bd12958d3d2a11915f10988f66b45de2751ac0 |
| 25 bps increase | 28¢ | +1pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-england-decision-in-june-25-bps-increase-polymarket-0x5d67e894a960a0485f73815e468702674b3c8de4ed5edae0ed94dbc10473eb74 |
| Increase | 39¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/south-african-reserve-bank-decision-in-may-increas-polymarket-0xd37d3800cab12ece646729232fc27c6b94d5aca8dc219c47f18b0eb2cdf9b7a9 |
| Decrease | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-june-decrease-polymarket-0xfd60b975dc670704eb83ea1e8a2b06726e9cb88d57bcb1524fa7d472ad7698b6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 45 |
| 2026-04-19 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Decrease +49pp 31→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · No change −43pp 65→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Maintain current rate +25pp 37→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · No change −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Decrease −17pp 23→6¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-england-decision-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bank-of-england-decision-april

## License

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