# Bank of Israel Decision in July

> No Change leads at 66%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-israel-decision-july
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.377Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-06

## Headline

- Leader: No Change at 66%
- Runner-up: Decrease at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 66¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-july-no-change-polymarket-0x17c51c52caf554ca5337fb1391dae64e2b9dda236ff5725e27191faae96e1b83 |
| Decrease | 23¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-july-decrease-polymarket-0xac8094e49053b7b8db7e434a0703db67b12d85e40335950afec12ed995f0fc8b |
| Increase | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-july-increase-polymarket-0x8a62ae76b62a2c1fff66e3e199f5db0acc328e99ad1a608c5621f8ecabf8f265 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No Change | Decrease | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 68 | 31 | 15 |
| 2026-04-25 | 63 | 24 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 71 | 28 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 64 | 30 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 64 | 27 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Decrease +9pp 28→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · No Change −8pp 71→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Decrease −6pp 34→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Decrease −6pp 36→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · No Change +3pp 61→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that Israel's central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 2026 monetary policy meeting. At 41%, the market indicates roughly even odds between a rate cut and other outcomes like holding rates steady or larger adjustments. The current level reflects recent inflation data, economic growth trends, and global monetary policy signals. The Bank of Israel typically bases decisions on domestic price stability and employment conditions, so upcoming inflation reports and economic indicators between now and the July meeting will be primary drivers. The bank's official announcement in July will definitively resolve this contract, making near-term economic data and any forward guidance from officials key catalysts that could shift market expectations in either direction.

### Key factors

- Israeli inflation trends relative to the central bank's target range over the next two months
- Comparison of interest rate expectations across other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve and ECB, which influence capital flows
- Economic growth forecasts and labor market conditions in Israel heading into the decision
- Any official communications or guidance from Bank of Israel leadership between now and July
- The specific magnitude of rate adjustments being priced across all contract options, which shows dispersion in market expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-israel-decision-july
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bank-of-israel-decision-july

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.