# Bank of Japan Decision in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-japan-decision-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:44.887Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-19

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 70% / Polymarket 48% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $13K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 5¢ | −5pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-may-no-chang-polymarket-0x15b28500fbbbe23185f4e343fe7ff39921a0e56334472a6c6bc1ddf7c3e2d6da |
| Increase | 95¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-may-increase-polymarket-0x2ed04f1752e07f0bc7eb940d869779080f51f989ff81e812a951401f525298a1 |
| Decrease | 79¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-russia-decision-in-june-decrease-polymarket-0x1daa856d50fe01a0bf8f8bb168705fc6ae929faa0f00252fb7ad3461c8db7a3d |
| Decrease | 93¢ | +2pp | $927 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-may-decrease-polymarket-0x5d5a4729071ff8d9d878210312f132d3691ce6fbbd2f01aebd4546b23e7b624c |
| No change | 7¢ | −1pp | $744 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0xa919b6a7cc8c958d82141ec2ba77b8fe813083a7ee2083178305c409ae28ce0d |
| No Change | 22¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0x0111a2756734a64f9d70fd6b8f8ed3bb583b19935a2fccc62b0c98b3f1557eac |
| 25 bps increase | 51¢ | +1pp | $341 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june-25-bps-increase-polymarket-0xb3237c597bd198f2e5af2d9c2597c71cdda3ab88649a410a917798b3eec8cff4 |
| No Change | 95¢ | +2pp | $263 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-korea-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0x31d7a76e9bd1ad98cd5b16e7605169720d5ea7df577e2ceef6b9dc533b19b0fe |
| Hike 25bps | 49¢ | +1pp | $255 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-japan-hike-25bps-at-the-june-2026-kalshi-kxcbdecisionjapan-26jun15-h25 |
| No Change | 22¢ | +8pp | $252 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-russia-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xe2da9a8cdf0abbe6b6b89cef2fc14ae7686419c33606d696bd15d8ccf302a818 |
| Increase | 39¢ | −11pp | $235 | polymarket | /markets/south-african-reserve-bank-decision-in-may-increas-polymarket-0xd37d3800cab12ece646729232fc27c6b94d5aca8dc219c47f18b0eb2cdf9b7a9 |
| No Change | 47¢ | ±0 | $144 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-may-no-change-polymarket-0x430c82b739789b90fd5f95929d03223f332808122327c8b69424793a5bad3daf |
| Increase | 26¢ | +8pp | $122 | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-may-increa-polymarket-0x7a454829458c8ad569df2c3639ebb4a1ac225f4442dce1dec1f003c4b7bc1658 |
| No change | 47¢ | −2pp | $111 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xe2fc1b6f5e644f939e090c42c309a498db86fb3bc20c02f05021ab42f1567de7 |
| Decrease | 54¢ | +2pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-may-decrease-polymarket-0x47381a493e81772f69e695d4de92695602eb353caa4a7a3bbf3b5df2ffa7ec74 |
| Increase | 4¢ | −2pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-canada-decision-in-june-increase-polymarket-0x146cdf818590e91110ab0ec950b367020625c792ce1953f12bb5e7c439643797 |
| No Change | 72¢ | −6pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-may-no-cha-polymarket-0x13c19da0f6411964cf17823c129912ec8e5a587ec884801814f95d900c4b8eb1 |
| No change | 94¢ | +1pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-canada-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xaa5aa8844cdcb27f9224d55472a4017788d54e36080250c7b6c63d537fb3d6de |
| Decrease | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-june-decrease-polymarket-0xfd60b975dc670704eb83ea1e8a2b06726e9cb88d57bcb1524fa7d472ad7698b6 |
| Above -0.3% | 90¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-japan-inflation-rate-mom-for-april-2026-b-kalshi-kxjpmominf-26may21-t-0.3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 44 |
| 2026-04-19 | 49 |
| 2026-04-26 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 53 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Decrease +49pp 31→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · No change −43pp 65→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Above -0.3% +41pp 50→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · No change −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · No Change +17pp 69→86¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate decision occurring in April 2026. At 52%, traders are essentially split between two outcomes, suggesting genuine uncertainty about the central bank's monetary policy stance. The probability is primarily driven by recent economic data from Japan—including inflation trends, employment figures, and GDP growth—which determine whether the BoJ will adjust rates or hold steady. Market participants are also factoring in global monetary policy signals, particularly from other major central banks that influence currency valuations and capital flows. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the official BoJ decision announcement on its scheduled meeting date, after which the contract will settle based on the actual policy action taken.

### Key factors

- Recent Japan CPI and core inflation readings relative to BoJ's 2% target, which directly influences rate decision likelihood
- Employment and wage growth data showing labor market tightness, a key factor in the BoJ's policy calculus
- USD/JPY exchange rate movements and expectations for Fed policy divergence, which affect BoJ decision timing
- Scheduled BoJ Monetary Policy Decision meeting date and any forward guidance statements released beforehand
- Comparative rate expectations across other G7 central banks, which shape relative attractiveness of yen-denominated assets

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-japan-decision-april
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