# Bank of Russia decision in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 55% across 7 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-russia-decision-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.468Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-06

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 6% / Polymarket 64% — 58pp spread
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 97¢ | +1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-japan-decision-in-june-25-bps-increase-polymarket-0xb3237c597bd198f2e5af2d9c2597c71cdda3ab88649a410a917798b3eec8cff4 |
| No change | 88¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-canada-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xaa5aa8844cdcb27f9224d55472a4017788d54e36080250c7b6c63d537fb3d6de |
| No Change | 62¢ | +1pp | $353 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-brazil-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0x0111a2756734a64f9d70fd6b8f8ed3bb583b19935a2fccc62b0c98b3f1557eac |
| No Change | 36¢ | ±0 | $239 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-israel-decision-in-july-no-change-polymarket-0x17c51c52caf554ca5337fb1391dae64e2b9dda236ff5725e27191faae96e1b83 |
| Decrease | 89¢ | −1pp | $122 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-russia-decision-in-june-decrease-polymarket-0x1daa856d50fe01a0bf8f8bb168705fc6ae929faa0f00252fb7ad3461c8db7a3d |
| No Change | 9¢ | +2pp | $22 | polymarket | /markets/bank-of-russia-decision-in-june-no-change-polymarket-0xe2da9a8cdf0abbe6b6b89cef2fc14ae7686419c33606d696bd15d8ccf302a818 |
| Maintain current rate | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-russia-maintain-current-rate-at-t-kalshi-kxcbdecisionrussia-26jun19-hold |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 44 |
| 2026-05-25 | 55 |
| 2026-06-01 | 43 |
| 2026-06-08 | 62 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · No Change +14pp 47→61¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · No Change +8pp 39→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · No Change +7pp 27→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · No Change −7pp 39→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Decrease +7pp 86→93¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bank-of-russia-decision-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bank-of-russia-decision-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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