# How many corporate bankruptcies will there be this year

> Above 550 leads at 93%, runner-up 92% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bankruptcy
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.754Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-10

## Headline

- Leader: Above 550 at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 600 at 92%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 550 | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-corporate-bankruptcies-will-there-be-this-kalshi-kxbankruptcy-26-550 |
| Above 600 | 92¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-corporate-bankruptcies-will-there-be-this-kalshi-kxbankruptcy-26-600 |
| Above 650 | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-corporate-bankruptcies-will-there-be-this-kalshi-kxbankruptcy-26-650 |
| Above 750 | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-corporate-bankruptcies-will-there-be-this-kalshi-kxbankruptcy-26-750 |
| Above 800 | 62¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-corporate-bankruptcies-will-there-be-this-kalshi-kxbankruptcy-26-800 |
| Above 850 | 47¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-corporate-bankruptcies-will-there-be-this-kalshi-kxbankruptcy-26-850 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 600 | Above 650 | Above 750 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 79 |
| 2026-04-14 | 93 | — | 79 |
| 2026-04-22 | — | 94 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 94 | 91 | 78 |
| 2026-04-24 | 94 | 92 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 92 | — | 77 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 77 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 77 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is assessing whether the U.S. will experience at least 550 corporate bankruptcies during 2026, with a 93% probability suggesting traders view this as highly likely. Corporate bankruptcy rates typically fluctuate with economic conditions, credit availability, and business sentiment. The current high probability reflects expectations of moderate-to-elevated distress levels, potentially influenced by recent interest rate environment, inflation trends, and sector-specific pressures. Resolution depends on actual bankruptcy filings tallied throughout 2026, with preliminary data typically available quarterly and final figures compiled by year-end. Key factors that could shift this probability include major changes in monetary policy, unexpected economic contraction or expansion, significant sector disruptions, or shifts in business credit conditions.

### Key factors

- Historical U.S. corporate bankruptcy rates typically range from 400-700 filings annually; current market pricing reflects confidence this threshold will be exceeded
- Federal Reserve policy trajectory and prevailing interest rates directly influence refinancing ability and default risk for leveraged firms
- Labor market health, measured by initial jobless claims and employment trends, serves as a leading indicator for broader economic stress and insolvency risk
- Specific sector vulnerabilities—such as commercial real estate, retail, or regional financial institutions—could accelerate bankruptcies if conditions deteriorate sharply
- Q2-Q4 2026 earnings reports and credit market stress indicators will provide concrete data points for market repricing as the year progresses

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bankruptcy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bankruptcy

## License

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