# Will Mandela Barnes endorse David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race before Aug 11, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/barnesendorse
Updated: 2026-08-08T19:20:51.624Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: No one at 81%
- Runner-up: David Crowley at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $800

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No one | 81¢ | +5pp | $722 | kalshi | /markets/will-mandela-barnes-endorse-no-one-in-the-2026-wis-kalshi-kxbarnesendorse-26aug11-noone |
| David Crowley | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mandela-barnes-endorse-david-crowley-in-the-2-kalshi-kxbarnesendorse-26aug11-dcro |
| Francesca Hong | 6¢ | ±0 | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-mandela-barnes-endorse-francesca-hong-in-the-kalshi-kxbarnesendorse-26aug11-fhon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No one | David Crowley | Francesca Hong |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 72 | 19 | 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | 74 | 10 | 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | 78 | 11 | 7 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · No one +7pp 68→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · No one −6pp 74→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · No one +5pp 73→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Francesca Hong −5pp 11→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-02 · No one −4pp 78→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Wisconsin's former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes will endorse David Crowley specifically in the 2026 gubernatorial race by August 11, 2026. Currently priced at 16%, it reflects market sentiment that Barnes is more likely to remain neutral or endorse someone else. The probability is shaped by Barnes' public positioning within Wisconsin Democratic politics, his relationship to Crowley relative to other candidates like Francesca Hong, and his historical tendency to make or withhold endorsements. The dominant outcome (77%) suggests market participants expect no Crowley endorsement before the August 11 deadline. The critical catalyst is any public statement or campaign event by Barnes before that date, particularly activities around the state Democratic convention or primary season.

### Key factors

- Barnes' prior public statements or social media regarding Crowley, Hong, or other 2026 Democratic gubernatorial candidates
- Timing of major campaign events or endorsement announcements by Democratic candidates before August 11
- Historical pattern of when and to whom Barnes typically grants political endorsements
- Whether Barnes holds an official party position that might constrain or enable early endorsements
- Distance between August 11 and Wisconsin's primary election date, and whether endorsements typically cluster around specific dates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/barnesendorse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=barnesendorse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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