# B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

> Caroline Elliott leads at 66%, runner-up 19% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.601Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Leader: Caroline Elliott at 66%
- Runner-up: Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 19%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Elliott | 66¢ | +2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner-c-polymarket-0x5d861bb608d5f9e41dee2ec7180d6c6f1d115182d3e3092a9173f6051872e6c1 |
| Kerry-Lynne Findlay | 19¢ | +2pp | $216 | polymarket | /markets/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner-k-polymarket-0xa66889b1721389724a6c09b76733a2226db64517faf8c93277af869d3fd6ef60 |
| Iain Black | 9¢ | −1pp | $218 | polymarket | /markets/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner-i-polymarket-0x3e332a537d75a5b4e906ea405330441c9d554ed2ebcd2ce64e9bf91b5723187b |
| Yuri Fulmer | 6¢ | +1pp | $217 | polymarket | /markets/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner-y-polymarket-0x538703161bcf460bad51c515097e503ed795931183cedc5e178bb852a0612a25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Caroline Elliott | Kerry-Lynne Findlay | Iain Black |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | — | 10 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 30 | 28 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 | 37 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 64 | 19 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 66 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Caroline Elliott +28pp 40→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kerry-Lynne Findlay −17pp 34→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Caroline Elliott +7pp 32→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Iain Black +6pp 6→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Caroline Elliott −4pp 68→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the aggregated market expectation that a specific candidate will win the B.C. Conservative Party leadership election at a 35% probability. The leadership race outcome depends primarily on delegate voting patterns and candidate support consolidation among party members. The race will be resolved when the party officially announces the winner following their scheduled leadership vote. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about which candidate will secure the most delegate votes, with different candidates receiving varying probability assignments across available contracts.

### Key factors

- Caroline Elliott contract trades at 41¢ while unnamed winner contracts average 35¢, suggesting market fragmentation across multiple candidates
- Trading volume on B.C. Conservative contracts ($1,411 combined) is substantially lower than major U.S. election contracts, indicating lower information density and potentially higher price volatility
- No single candidate contract dominates (Yuri Fulmer at 4¢, Caroline Elliott at 41¢), suggesting the field remains competitive with multiple viable outcomes
- Market probabilities must sum to approximately 100¢ across all candidates, meaning the referenced 35% represents partial probability for one outcome in a multi-candidate race
- The timing and mechanics of the party's delegate selection process will directly determine which voting coalitions succeed

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bc-conservative-party-leadership-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.