# Will Ben make at least 12 three pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 6 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bds3ptou
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey: 6+ made three pointers | 52¢ | +13pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-joey-make-at-least-6-three-pointers-during-th-kalshi-kxbds3ptou-26-joe6 |
| Fat Perez: 11+ made three pointers | 18¢ | +2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-fat-perez-make-at-least-11-three-pointers-dur-kalshi-kxbds3ptou-26-fat11 |
| Bob: 11+ made three pointers | 37¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-bob-make-at-least-11-three-pointers-during-th-kalshi-kxbds3ptou-26-bob11 |
| Jensen: 5+ made three pointers | 30¢ | +7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jensen-make-at-least-5-three-pointers-during-kalshi-kxbds3ptou-26-jen5 |
| Ben: 12+ made three pointers | 25¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-make-at-least-12-three-pointers-during-th-kalshi-kxbds3ptou-26-ben12 |
| Binny: 11+ made three pointers | 25¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-binny-make-at-least-11-three-pointers-during-kalshi-kxbds3ptou-26-bin11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | 12 |
| 2026-05-27 | 25 |
| 2026-05-28 | 30 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Joey: 6+ made three pointers +28pp 9→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Bob: 11+ made three pointers +16pp 4→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Binny: 11+ made three pointers +14pp 12→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Joey: 6+ made three pointers +13pp 37→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Bob: 11+ made three pointers +12pp 20→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Ben will successfully make at least 12 three-pointers during the BobHQ 3PT Shootout. The 10% probability reflects significant skepticism about Ben reaching this threshold. The low probability appears driven by the demanding nature of the target—12 successful three-pointers is a high bar in competitive shootout conditions—and likely reflects either Ben's historical performance in such events or expectations based on participant skill levels. The contract will resolve once the BobHQ 3PT Shootout takes place and official results are recorded, at which point Ben's actual three-point total will determine the outcome. Currently, comparable shootout targets for other participants (Binny at 11+, Bob at 11+, Fat Perez at 11+) trade slightly higher, suggesting Ben may be viewed as less likely to reach similar performance levels. Trading volume remains modest at $24 over 24 hours.

### Key factors

- Ben's historical three-point shooting accuracy and performance in previous similar competitions
- The specific format and rules of the BobHQ 3PT Shootout (time limits, ball availability, shooting position constraints)
- Competitive context: how Ben's performance typically compares to peers like Binny, Bob, and Fat Perez in shooting competitions
- Whether 12 three-pointers represents an outlier performance or a realistic upper-range outcome for Ben
- The scheduled date and confirmed participation of all shootout competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bds3ptou

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