# Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 83%, runner-up 63% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:07.192Z
Category: general · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 83%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 63%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 83¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x40161963962b8f77c1298da6c8338a8cbabb32c59102ac2c8c8f1f56ab49be41 |
| O/U 2.5 | 63¢ | — | $8 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| Both Teams to Score | 61¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xa6bb1fce81a5a070df83386ddc0cac05f8910909895e60ee4e257a2b3c45bbaa |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x3ff606b99c24d4c886534599d596a64de569f7c053b4512c9176e268c5af2e24 |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) | 34¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x7319259da8cf5055776db5df89202814cde7710d46e8b35a2f61a0af3fa25c99 |
| O/U 4.5 | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x7eaf4e46731eb3c7efcc3e74ffe1444df46671214afdf62cc8fcbf8616c1d03e |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) | 20¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xbba24fa424cea0cabf568622b7d0a67f97b5aaca217f97ad9c4b3b6fd37d1e51 |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) | 13¢ | +13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xa820b44626be19ed92b577e4843559aa079687aab812138b2d4a067b21ba50da |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xabf5f0fe5460feaa70901d1fbaba1a0b8ae789d8380cf2d8d67ab738832ee2ae |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 4.5 | Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 82 | 24 | 20 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 24 | 29 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) +13pp 15→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) +9pp 20→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) +3pp 11→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Beijing Guoan FC will win more matches than Dalian Yingbo FC over a defined period. The aggregate comes from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a 7 percentage-point gap suggesting some disagreement about Guoan's recent form and squad strength. Guoan's historical performance in the Chinese Super League and current injury status would primarily move this probability. Dalian Yingbo's recent results and defensive record would push it lower if they show improvement. The main resolution driver is the completion of the specified match window—likely a full season or tournament phase. Near-term head-to-head results and any significant roster changes before the period ends will clarify whether current pricing reflects true win distributions.

### Key factors

- Beijing Guoan's seasonal win rate in recent Chinese Super League campaigns versus their historical average
- Dalian Yingbo FC's actual match results and goal differential during the relevant comparison period
- Polymarket contracts trading at 37% versus Kalshi at 30% suggests venue-specific trader disagreement on Guoan's likelihood
- Liquidity remains thin ($45 24h volume on the Dalian Yingbo FC contract), potentially reflecting low market confidence or limited trader interest
- Any confirmed roster changes, manager swaps, or injuries announced before the measurement period begins could shift expectations significantly

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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